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TheTradersTrader

@traderstrader1

Ex-Berenberg Strategist | 12+ Years FX Trading

Macro & Technical $USD Strategist | Free Daily Trading Plan

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calendar_today04-03-2025 14:32:07

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【05/08/25】 $EURUSD traded in a narrow range between 1.1550 & 1.1580 and seems pretty comfortable hovering near 1.1550 If we do see softer US data, I’d expect bids to show up again in the 1.1500 – 1.1530 area tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/L… #forex #StockMarket #Crypto #XAUUSD #DXY

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Eyes are on today’s ISM Services print for July A slight pickup is expected, which could give the $dollar a small push higher That said, I’d expect any $DXY rally to struggle beyond the 99.00–99.25 area for now #Forex #forextrading #forexsignals #USD #XAUUSD

Eyes are on today’s ISM Services print for July

A slight pickup is expected, which could give the $dollar a small push higher

That said, I’d expect any $DXY rally to struggle beyond the 99.00–99.25 area for now

#Forex #forextrading #forexsignals #USD #XAUUSD
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【05/08/25 Key Levels】 $EURUSD Support – 1.15164 / 1.14050 / 1.13713 Resistance – 1.15990 / 1.16901 / 1.17702 - 1.17899 $DXY Support - 98.585 / 98.015* / 97.429 - 97.109 Resistance - 99.197 / 100.257 / 100.580 #ForexTrading #forexsignals #trading #DayTrading #scalping

【05/08/25 Key Levels】

$EURUSD

Support – 1.15164 / 1.14050 / 1.13713

Resistance – 1.15990 / 1.16901 / 1.17702 - 1.17899

$DXY

Support - 98.585 / 98.015* / 97.429 - 97.109

Resistance - 99.197 / 100.257 / 100.580

#ForexTrading #forexsignals #trading #DayTrading #scalping
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The $dollar is consolidating after Friday’s drop Fed Mary Daly spoke last night, hinting risks now lean toward more than two cuts this year, markets are pricing in 60bps of easing Tomorrow we have, Fed voters Susan Collins & Lisa Cook who's words will matter more #trading #DXY

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$EURUSD If Eurozone inflation slows, EUR could lose more ground but markets are pricing in 3 Fed cuts this year 3 Consecutive cuts? Sounds like a fairy tale, but not impossible Will 1.1600 break this week? From here, it’s all data-dependent Bookmark 12th Aug #forex #trading

$EURUSD

If Eurozone inflation slows, EUR could lose more ground but markets are pricing in 3 Fed cuts this year

3 Consecutive cuts? Sounds like a fairy tale, but not impossible

Will 1.1600 break this week?

From here, it’s all data-dependent

Bookmark 12th Aug

#forex #trading
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$EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸 Even us macro fundamental traders like to have a little scalping fun now and then! ☺️ #ForexTrading #forexsignal #scalping

$EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸

Even us macro fundamental traders like to have a little scalping fun now and then! ☺️

#ForexTrading #forexsignal #scalping
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【06/08/25】 FX has been relatively quiet since Friday’s sharp post-payroll move My view hasn’t changed, the upside risk for $EURUSD comes from the Fed’s ongoing dovish shift, not from any bullish story out of Europe tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/U… #forex #stocks #crypto #XAUUSD #DXY

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The $dollar tried to rebound yesterday, but a soft ISM print sent it back down to Monday’s levels. Today’s calendar is fairly light, but we will hear from Fed voters Lisa Cook & Susan Collins, both of whom lean dovish. Their comments may be influential. #trading #forex #DXY

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Yesterday’s final revision to the eurozone’s July PMIs came in slightly lower, but to be honest, it didn’t move the needle. Right now, the $euro simply isn’t driving the $EURUSD narrative, it’s the $dollar side that continues to dominate price action. #forex #forextrading

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Zooming in on price action since “Liberation Day” $EURUSD looks a bit undervalued The 2Y EUR-USD swap spread has narrowed 5bps since late June back then, $EURUSD was near 1.180 On a short-term relative rates basis, there’s a case it should be trading higher #forex #bonds #DXY

Zooming in on price action since “Liberation Day”

$EURUSD looks a bit undervalued

The 2Y EUR-USD swap spread has narrowed 5bps since late June back then, $EURUSD was near 1.180

On a short-term relative rates basis, there’s a case it should be trading higher

#forex #bonds #DXY
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Zoom out & things get murkier… Last Sept, EUR-USD 2Y swap spread was ~85bps, but $EURUSD traded near 1.12 Meaning other forces are at play The weaker jobs print boosts Fed cut odds, but the new US-EU trade deal might also be denting the euro’s defensive appeal 🤷‍♂️ #forex #DXY

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In short my base case: continued $USD softness Markets are still digesting the Fed’s dovish shift, & Trump could name a politically sympathetic (dovish) Fed nominee soon. $EURUSD path of least resistance is up but the $euro own story isn’t helping #forex #trading #Nifty #GOLD

In short my base case:
continued $USD softness

Markets are still digesting the Fed’s dovish shift, & Trump could name a politically sympathetic (dovish) Fed nominee soon.

$EURUSD path of least resistance is up but the $euro own story isn’t helping

#forex #trading #Nifty #GOLD
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Why on earth am I seeing so-called macro traders & “ex-professionals” shorting $EURUSD into a dovish Fed repricing and a softening $dollar backdrop?😳 Be careful who you follow #forextrading #forexsignal #trading

Why on earth am I seeing so-called macro traders & “ex-professionals” shorting $EURUSD into a dovish Fed repricing and a softening $dollar backdrop?😳

Be careful who you follow

#forextrading #forexsignal #trading
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Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is to speak today Should Bostic echo his colleagues’ tone, it would reinforce the current repricing in rates & FX markets Fed messaging has been surprisingly aligned, potentially setting the stage for a dovish pivot at Jackson Hole #trading

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Current reports suggest, Trump may delay the Fed Chair nomination until January, opting for a placeholder Kevin Hassett remains the frontrunner, and his dovish lean + alignment with Trump’s agenda could weigh further on the $USD Markets will be watching closely. #forex #dxy

Current reports suggest, Trump may delay the Fed Chair nomination until January, opting for a placeholder

Kevin Hassett remains the frontrunner, and his dovish lean + alignment with Trump’s agenda could weigh further on the $USD

Markets will be watching closely.

#forex #dxy
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We continue to hold our long's on $EURUSD from 1.15440 While a clean break above 1.1750 is unlikely before next week’s CPI We expect some consolidation post 1.1700, dips should continue to find support. Offering good opportunities to add #forexsignal #forextrading #forextrader

We continue to hold our long's on $EURUSD from 1.15440

While a clean break above 1.1750 is unlikely before next week’s CPI

We expect some consolidation post 1.1700, dips should continue to find support. Offering good opportunities to add

#forexsignal #forextrading #forextrader
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Trump reportedly planning meetings with both Zelensky & Putin as soon as next week Talk of “great progress” has already weighed on crude & the $dollar Markets are starting to price in geopolitical de-escalation, $EURUSD could become the key expression of $euro strength #forex