TGA levels, essentially the U.S. Treasury’s checking account, haven’t been drawing down the way many expected after the government reopened. Instead of falling, the balance has been climbing. That raises a real question: Is Treasury deliberately keeping the TGA elevated to

My thoughts on bitcoin and this cycle. Funds flow into assets depending where they are on the risk curve. I want to see big tech lead. After QT stops and Fed’s balance sheet begins expanding Bitcoin and crypto will find their footing. Just like 4Q19.

People asking for a position update. It's not pretty out there so I've backed off sharing out of respect for those hurting. 3 open positions (shorts), rest in cash. MSTR +33% ETH +10.3% ADA +20.6% You know BTC bull runs exited at $113k and is sidelines preserving capital.

Tell me again this is now worthy of asking questions as Treasury quietly offers up $650 BILLION in new issuances

They have no idea Japan just started running the printers and the rest of the world will follow.

What I am watching - Bitcoin This is the first entry out of the wedge breakdown which ultimately will either be rejected or wind up being a liquidity grab leading to an upside wedge breakout becoming one of the best opportunities of the year. Dovish Fed comments on Friday have

GM. Glad to be back with you all! I don’t care what your favorite macro commentator is saying Monetary Base Total is bottoming for this Fed cycle and is poised to move higher. That is not what a bear market looks like.

Great session. Highly recommend complete watch. Bear Market? Not With This Chart Turning Up youtube.com/live/rHXo6xAS-…

Tether FUD usually means early cycle. Weird to be dropping at a time many think bear market 2026. Arthur included a fatal flaw in his post. USDT is not backed by Bitcoin. Tether has purchased Bitcoin and gold with their profits.

What I am watching. Bond markets are waking up to the re-acceleration I've been forecasting, the pricing is starting to shift, and this is only the beginning. Faster economic growth in 2026 - not what a recession looks like.

Only a matter of time before the Fed launches overnight and term repo operations again where injections expand the balance sheet to restore ample reserves. This is the new Fed cycle to prolong the inevitable return to outright QE for as long as possible.

4-Year Cycle. Has bitcoin ever had a red year the year after the halving?

QT officially ended yesterday, December 1. The Fed’s projected $20 billion per month in reserve-management purchases aligns closely with its actions in 2019. We’ve now entered a new phase of the Fed cycle, designed to extend the expansion for as long as possible before a return

The market shift happening right now. CTM youtube.com/live/YyVYWTMGt…

Power law analysts beginning to release Bitcoin is actually going to break their models to the upside as $BTC is destined to grow exponentially out of the curve.