Unexpected

He’s probably right. We’re probably more like 6wks behind GFC price action, bc the trade collapse this time was 6wks behind. But given the greater market leverage today (vs. consumer leverage then) I wouldn’t write this outcome off completely.

Seth Golden Just because it was right to be 24mths behind, 24mths ago (in a trending market) doesn’t mean it’s right today. The truth is markets aren’t driven by earnings - the volatility is in multiples, and flows drive those. Leverage is behind the market, plugging cashflow gaps across

It’s interesting folks are impressed with falling consumer delinquencies at the money-centres, without acknowledging the enormous surge in consumer loan securitisations ($600bn last 18mths), and the fact that those loans are then going delinquent at GFC levels. I guess it’s luck.

The Fed printed SO much they covered record twin deficits, $4tr in NBFI & private loans, more equity levg than dot com, a record 9% GDP of repo... ...and with enough left over to park $2.5tr back at the Fed. "Uh...you're good...we actually think we might've had enough for now".

Yeah! Yeah me too. Guys.

“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome” - Munger

George Robertson Bill You’re not understanding the point bc you’re stuck on your own point of whether the levels change because of bank actions. The levels don’t change. They’re just constantly moving from one bank to other banks based on settlements. That’s their entire function. You are incredibly

The thing is, it’s actually the negative people that are delusional - we know this from decades of behavioural finance. The species has a large central, negative bias.

I actually think almost everyone supports or tolerates big government bc of species biases, and almost everyone who supports big govt supports fiat. Most, unknowingly about both. Staunch defenders in my orbit haven’t been directly in the line of corruption, but are collectivist.

universe rewards focus but punishes attachment.

Tom McClellan Trade cycle variations have been the dominant driver of this entire post-Covid cycle. Covid itself was a trade disruption. Then a massive surge. Then a commodity boom (highly disruptive due to impacts on trade finance). Then European energy shock from Russia war / BoP hit, then

As telcos the world over know very well, capex-heavy industries with four incumbents tend towards highly irrational competition.

I am inspired that even the Argentinians can turn away from socialism (um, belatedly), even during an economically brutal post-Peronism “clean up” adjustment phase.

PE Co: Let's fund every idea & give each a few years💡 Same PE Co: Huh. Out of cash. How bout our PC arm gives them some loans to buy time. They must have some totally non-fraudy collateral we can use🤔 Same PE Co's PC arm: Huh. Not paying. Let's swap this for equity stakes ♾

Here’s a take. The human brain is 1000x more energy efficient than AI, and humans are also endowed with billions of years of evolved biologically distributed independently intelligent sensory input. We know how to expand human consciousness. Why don’t we just do that, at scale?