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So I just managed to make $100k on predicting the new pope today. If you're interested in reading how, I'll fully go through it. If you aren't, then see ya! But please say a quick prayer that I don't get excommunicated, thx. --- Alright, so normally I don't like to talk about

Interesting angle on optimistic systems trending towards determinism. Prediction markets want max interestingness, though—and will pay the cost. “Did trump smile” and “did someone fart” are just two examples.

Prediction markets let you bet on outcomes, but so much more is possible. This paper introduces Multiverse Finance, which splits the financial system into parallel universes so you can short the market today, but only if your candidate is going to lose the next election. 1/

Don’t trust viral headlines. Bet on them. UMA will verify the outcome.

Across Prime ┃ Dan Robinson & Hart Lambur ┃ Live on X x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Now we just need to eliminate capital gains tax so buying a burger isn't a taxable event. How the hell do we get mass adoption of BTC as a currency if you have to track your gains when you buy a burger? The IRS considers any unreported Bitcoin payment a tax violation.

Fact checkers are undermined by anyone who wants to push a contrary narrative. They can just call them fake news too. The reason prediction markets are awesome is the invitation for someone you’re arguing with to make money on their dumb ass belief.

I have come to believe that Bitcoin being digital gold is enough for it to continue to grow. If you want to live in a single home and defend it like a fortress, physical gold is fine. But I am a nomad and no banking service nor physical gold compares to self-custodial BTC.

UMA isn’t an oracle. It’s a referee for the internet.

This is pretty cool. UMA is the internet’s referee for when there’s a flag on the call (American football speak for disagreeing with a decision)

AI makes KYC and ‘proving your body is behind a particular screen’ more attackable. This makes pass phrases more attractive. It just takes more responsibility than maintaining a legal identity.

UMAs Twitter is based again

This gets technical... but the TDLR is that 7702+7683 turns intents (and Across) into a crosschain paymaster that can execute any user action but pay for it from any chain where the user has funds. Aka: do anything on any chain paying for it from your preferred home

The UMA Optimistic Oracle has shown us how humans reach consensus. How we collaborate, dispute, and converge on truth. Now it's time to test what happens when AI proposes the answers. Follow the experiment → OptimisticTruthBot More details in our latest blog below ↴

May 2023: We’re at our team offsite. ChatGPT had just launched, and I’m losing my mind telling everyone how LLMs will make UMA 100x cheaper, faster, and more robust. Late 2023: We try it. Doesn’t work. The AI just isn’t good enough--humans outperform it by a mile. May