The Fed isn’t willing to bear the costs of bringing down inflation more quickly to target. The public either doesn’t understand those costs or finds them acceptable.

"There are no risk free paths"

Chart of the year:

You can get people to believe a lot of things that aren't true, but I guarantee you can't get them to believe that grocery prices are down.

You can get people to believe a lot of things, but I guarantee you can't get them to believe grocery prices are down.

Hear me out...maybe, just maybe, the UMich numbers are complete garbage and not worth talking about anymore?

The PhD Reckoning is near: open.substack.com/pub/bojan/p/th…

But, but...we aren't collecting the data with the government shut down.

Ahhh..."not actively agitating" should be "actively agitating against."

Right after he shadow dissents on October and talks about a pause...I call BS.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who said he penciled in a total of three rate cuts at the September meeting, changed his view after that as the economy appeared more resilient. He didn't think a cut was needed last month. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

It’s not just the presidents, Barr was ringing the bell before the October FOMC meeting. It really just amazing that the financial press utterly ignored him.

Barr started the cautious theme. “Common sense would indicate that when there is a lot of uncertainty, one should move cautiously. This is validated by past monetary policymaking experience, and a particular research insight from nearly 60 years ago.”

I think, ok, fine, it slipped through, but now it should take extra attention in the context of the current debate, but that’s not happening.

Tim Duy “Barr’s remarks are the latest sign that such a path faces some opposition inside the Fed’s policy committee.” wsj.com/economy/centra…

Nick got me…

Some professional news. Excited to start today as chief economist at @Stripe. Looking forward to working with & learning from the brilliant people there to produce data-centered insights and research.

Scorching take here from Peter Conti-Brown. Re: Kugler though, Sen. Menendez basically held one of the Fed seats hostage until they appointed a Latino person, and that left them no room to appoint a new person for vice chair (leading to Jefferson’s promotion)

😂 seriously? Good luck with that.