The Fed concluded its quantitative tightening program in December. With its balance sheet now expanding again, this shift will inject fresh liquidity into financial markets.

Happy New Year!

Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded sizable net inflows over the first two trading days of the new year, indicating renewed institutional accumulation. This shift in sentiment suggests the early stages of a renewed rally may now be underway.

The combined supply of USDT and USDC expanded by $2.5B in December to $263.3B, a 1% monthly increase, continuing its steady expansion.

Core CPI for December came in below expectations, posting its lowest annual pace in nearly five years. This offers the clearest signal yet of cooling price pressures, serving as a positive catalyst for crypto market sentiment.

Gold and Bitcoin have shown a significant divergence recently, with investors aggressively accumulating the precious metal. In the current macro climate, a sustained tailwind for crypto may still be some time away.

Since Jan 20, aggregate USDT and USDC supply has contracted by ~$7.5B, signaling persistent capital outflows. This liquidity drain indicates the crypto market-bottoming process remains incomplete and requires further consolidation before a reversal.

Following the sharp market correction, USDT and USDC supplies have resumed expansion. This recovery suggests valuations have reached compelling entry points, signaling that significant capital is now deploying to buy the dip.

As the "Fed Put" expires and liquidity ebbs, global markets are facing a historic stress test. Our research reveals how a shifting macro paradigm is driving silver's leverage washout, gold's resilience, and the repricing of $BTC. Dive into our insights: tidecap.medium.com/tide-capital-a…

Stablecoin liquidity is recovering. In February, combined USDT and USDC supply rose by $3.3B (+1.3%) to $258.9B. This upward trend signals renewed capital inflows, indicating the broader crypto market is forming a bottom.

MicroStrategy raised $STRC’s yield to 11.50%, driving strong investor demand. Last week, $MSTR purchased over $1.2 billion of $BTC, and this week’s buying could reach another $1–2 billion, implying solid near-term support and a strong bid for $BTC.

Amid extreme macro uncertainty, dispersion across asset classes is widening fast. One shift the market may still be underappreciating: since March 9, $BTC has begun to outperform gold, signaling a notable change in leadership among perceived hedges.

March was marked by sudden geopolitical shocks and sharp volatility across global markets, yet $BTC and $ETH still closed the month in positive territory. Meanwhile, combined USDT and USDC supply rose by $2.7B to $261.6B, providing underlying support for the crypto market.

$BTC is trading near $74,500, and the 4-hour chart is showing a textbook bullish moving-average alignment. Even more notably, perpetual funding remains negative. If price continues higher, shorts could get squeezed, potentially accelerating the move.

$MSTR has broken out of its recent base, sharply restoring its mNAV premium and reopening the equity issuance bid for more $BTC purchases. With $BTC near $75,000, $MSTR's incremental buying could add another tailwind to the move higher.

Total USDT supply has risen by $5.6 billion over the past two weeks. This suggests incremental capital is flowing into the crypto market, helping sustain demand for $BTC and driving it back above $78,000.

The expansion in stablecoin supply is beginning to plateau, while $STRC continues to trade below $100, suggesting that near-term marginal demand for bitcoin:native may soften. With bitcoin:native hovering around $76,000, the market appears to be transitioning into a