Russell 1000 Value relative to Russell 1000 Growth ... hovering near an all-time low

December nonfarm payrolls +256k

Unemployment rate: October: 4.139% November: 4.231% December: 4.086%

*TRADERS SHIFT FULL PRICING OF NEXT FED RATE CUT TO OCTOBER via Bloomberg

New cycle low in December for nonsupervisory workers' average hourly earnings growth (in y/y terms)

December marked the 40th consecutive month of the unemployment rate staying below 5%

30y Treasury yield 5% ... highest since November 2023

*MICH. 5-10 YR INFL EXPECTATIONS RISE TO 3.3% HIGHEST SINCE 2008 via Bloomberg

2025 has been a very long year

S&P 500 vs. its 100-day moving average

The % of consumers expecting to see more unemployment in the next year jumped by 10 percentage points in January per UMich (largest increase since August 2021)

Market's expectation of a March Fed cut fading aggressively

Some things to keep in mind for the rest of the month: 1/14: PPI 1/15: CPI 1/16: Retail Sales 1/20: Inauguration 1/29: Fed meeting 1/31: Employment Cost Index 1/31: PCE

The U.S. economy added 2.23 million jobs in 2024

The NASDAQ 100 has bounced by 1.3% from this morning's low

Veneta Dimitrova and Joe Kalish of Ned Davis Research: "There is no reason for the Fed to cut rates this month. They said they were taking a break. If there were any lingering doubts, this nailed it shut. American exceptionalism lives on."

Russell 2000 close on 10/10/24: 2,188.4 Russell 2000 close on 1/10/25: 2,189.2

The Russell 2000 is in a correction

The fall in US birth rates from 1960-1980 was mostly driven by couples having fewer children (avg number of children born to a woman halved from almost 4 to 2) … yet in the past couple decades, the fall in birth rates has been driven by fewer couples John Burn-Murdoch @ft

The 6-month change in the unemployment rate got up to 0.5 percentage points last summer and has since reversed to 0 ... going back to the 1940s, we have never seen that strong of an increase and subsequent move back to 0 without experiencing a recession