supoer-macro.com Trump is making Europe great again ft.com/content/724d92… via @ft Unintended consequence of an erratic US president: increasing the global appetite for an alternative for UST's.......

super-macro.com Tariffs more bark than bite. MEGA : Making EUROPE great again

As usual, BoJ did nothing Japan still has the highest rate of headline inflation among the advanced economies and the joint-lowest – with Switzerland - policy rate.

super-macro.com Germany’s buildup in defense spending is one of several signs Europe might be shaking off stagnation with pro-growth policies, columnist Greg Ip writes wsj.com/economy/global… via The Wall Street Journal On Wednesday, it proposed a defense fund of 150 billion euros, the

super-macro.com Markets in a mess, unintended consequences from Tariffs, we unpack as much as we can. ****this podcast was recorded prior to Trump's temporary suspension of reciprocal tariffs.****

super-macro.com Trump’s reckless trade policy is undermining support for the dollar The relationship between two-year US and European rates has been consistent for the past four years, but despite two-year treasuries now paying almost 225bps more than two-year bunds,

super-macro.com Credit spreads contained for now Credit is now responding to the instability in equity markets, with investment grade credit spreads widening, but by less than the move in equity implied volatility might have suggested. Corporate balance sheets are far

8% YTD slump in S&P 500 still leaves it overvalued and vulnerable The axes below are scaled so the 12-month trailing level of EPS and the S&P 500 index level overlap at a PE of 17. With the index still on a trailing PE above 20 in the midst of escalating economic uncertainty,

super-macro.com Tariff rush creates demand gap in coming months. Last week’s industrial production data reflected the short-term surge in demand that will quickly fade once the tariffs feed through the supply chain. Manufacturing output grew at an annualised rate of

super-macro.com US corporates to face margin squeeze US companies will face significant margin pressure this year. The S&P 500 had a great run, but rising input prices and weaker consumer demand are likely to put downward pressure on margins.

super-macro.com We warned the euro was vulnerable to a closing of the rate spread more than a week ago. There is further to go…

super-macro.com An extract from our weekend note: Trump’s negotiating style is to start with an extreme position so that any concessions seem like a win to his opponents. If the 10% universal tariff becomes the base case for most countries and China’s reciprocal rate

super-macro.com The Big Beautiful Bill , dubbed 'BBB' by Trump, could well be where the US ratings are heading Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ budget is spooking investors ft.com/content/d0b40c… via @ft

super-macro.com Macro Funds Struggle Despite the turmoil of the past five months, the TACO trade has kept markets in a range, with the S&P 500, the ten-year treasury yield, and the market price of the year-end fed funds rate all roughly where they started the year. Any

super-macro.com Back to the widow-maker trade : USD/JPY Last weekend in the SuperMacro note we wrote: Expectations of the yen sliding above 200 to the dollar has been a widow-maker trade for the past two decades. However, if the MoF shifts to a heavier reliance shorter

Great to be talking macro with Jack and Julian, who I both have a lot of time for. Julian Brigden

youtube.com/watch?v=s8nmHN… Jack Farley quizes myself and Julian Brigden on the fragility of the bond market link above

super-macro.com Fed could well signal only 1 cut in 2025 For the past three years, the market has viewed the outcome of most Fed meeting as dovish, leading to steep declines in the policy-sensitive two-year yield on the day of the meeting, despite rates being hiked over