The Efficient Market Hypothesis is an economist joke. Like Spherical Cows in a Vacuum is a physicist joke.

What to do? If you think you’re early to something true but socially costly to share just be a wee bit more courageous, on the margin, about sharing it. This scales to a non-linear effect.

I’m like 6-12 months away from deciding that most humans don’t pass the Turing test

if you're *too* early to a truth, the ideological immune system of the hivemind will push back against it till it kills it an unpop truth can best survive thru controlled exposure, strategic inception in leveraged memetic environments till it reaches a memetic cascade point

"GPT make my angry response non-violent communication"

people need to be incentivized to listen to each other more do you know how lossy communication is?

it is not possible to effectively regulate the market through centralized structures

prediction isn't some woo Nostradamus shit we do it every. single. fucking. day. to varying degrees of success depending on how much you know about what you're predicting

🌱 John Ash 🌳 prediction depends on the integrity of its informational inputs. flawed systems and incentives deliberately corrupt the knowledge base, turning foresight into a gamble against manufactured noise.

sometimes a single selfish act creates a chain of selfish acts where the fallout of one person's actions propagate from person to person

my wife's Dunbar number is like... 1500 and mine is like... 15 so there's definitely a lot of pretending I remember people

you can't [fill in the blank] you way to happiness

memetics is like Legos or K'nex the shape of the thought and the shape of the mind matters

people sound thought-averse when the only thing they have to contribute to the conversation is to say "slop"