chat is this the local bottom? - skew > 10 vols in put premium historically, a put skew between 10-20 vols has marked the start of a reversal (see: oct 11 and sep 6) - gex is very +ve at 90k MMs/dealers will be hedging — selling as BTC rises/buying as it falls (see: 100k)

once again, short-dated option skews don't lie data from Laevitas

interesting how short-dated skews have flipped to a put premium (2 vols) despite ATHs compared to previous ATHs when skew was deep in call territory (5-15 vols) flush incoming?

lots of interest (for lack of a better word) on the 90k and 102k strike for $BTC 27DEC24 iv on that expiry stands at ~55%, implying a 1sd move of ~6% which puts the expected move within the range of 90,500 to 101,500 interesting

easier said than done equity curves for selling BTC vol since july '23: 1) 10-delta weeklies: -15% 2) 10-delta monthlies: -21% adding a short put (effectively a strangle) recoups some losses but still only yields: weeklies: +2% monthlies: -9%

5/ 1-Week Option Skews • BTC (-0.25 vols): Neutral positioning with no strong preference for puts or calls • ETH (+0.01 vols): Similar neutral sentiment as BTC • SOL (-3.97 vols): Call premium persists despite spot declining, suggesting traders are pricing potential upside

to whom it may concern, btc.d ↑ + btc ↑ = alts ↓ btc.d ↑ + btc ↓ = alts dump ↓↓↓ btc.d ↑ + btc → = alts → btc.d → + btc ↑ = alts ↑ btc.d → + btc → = alts → btc.d → + btc ↓ = alts ↓ btc.d ↓ + btc ↑ = altsznnnn ↑↑↑

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- skews saying we bottom soon - gex saying we see'll see goblin town if BTC loses 90k (heavily -ve gamma → dealers will sell to hedge) think this may be a case where if we do get > 10 vols in put premium, we likely see a relief rally before going lower (see: dec 20)

1/ Crypto kicked off the year with a bang, but the past week has seen BTC, ETH, and SOL giving back their New Year’s gains. BTC found support at $91K, ETH at $3.1K, and SOL at $182.

nice btc vol reset post-inauguration vrp prints -ve, deeper than post-election spreads across all tenors at extreme lows, is it time to buy vol?

left curve take: - $btc max pain has acted as support the previous 4 times we dipped to those levels, 5th bounce incoming? not so left curve take: - i think we lose 100k (-ve gamma supports this) before seeing bids come in (see: 13 jan)

which way, western man? $SOL option enjoyooors are mildly bearish despite finding bids at 189 > 25-delta skew (p-c) sitting at 1 vol in put premium onchain perp enjoyooors mostly bullish > 22.2m in long liqs vs 1.1m in short liqs on a 5% move

interesting $BTC option enjoyooors buying up every dip with calls instead of the usual chasing of spot with calls/puts lots of activity going on at the 100k, 110k, 120k strikes, particularly march opex what do they know that we don't?

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kink in term structure, looks like the market is treating the summit as a vol event—like the election, unlike the inauguration post-summit expiry iv stands at 93%, implying a 1σ move of ~8% which puts the expected move for $BTC within the range of 82.4k and 97k interesting

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