Always listen to what Nicole has to say

If there is one thing you should read today, it's Sam Lair's excellent piece for Dr. Jeffrey Lewis on Israeli interceptor usage during the Israel-Iran war.

I've seen multiple statements about number of Iranian missiles launched. Some say 500, some say 550, some say 591, some say 631. That's a big delta, probably produced by counting uncertainties.

First blog post in a series about the 12-Day War, this first one on Iranian breakout, and why I think people are a little too eager to assume the worst on Iranian breakout speed: horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2025/06/27/the…

A lot of technical assessments of Iran’s nuclear program feel rushed. There’s an overreliance on fuel cycle basics and projections built on major unknowns while overlooking domestic factors eg institutional disruption, procurement challenges, and acute paranoia.

Golden Dome proves the United States does not have a secret weather control weapon because if we did we could use it to mess up adversary missile guidence with sudden pressure changes. QED

The administration has argued that the destruction of Iran's uranium metal production lines at Isfahan will set its nuclear-weapon program back by "years." At Arms Control Wonk, I argue it may not even set Tehran back by months. Link in next post.

Lets put to bed this INSANE idea that there are 250 impact points in Israel we are somehow missing. In Haaretz.com, scientists who have been perfecting their change detection software over the past three years in Gaza say they detected 10 additional probable impacts. This would

Hey! We found the Institute for Atomic Energy in Pyongyang. 32.029, 125.668 #dailygeolocation Full post on the ACW blog: armscontrolwonk.com/archive/122062…

Joyeux anniversaire à la France libre, républicaine et bien armée!

horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2025/07/22/the… I may have written 12K words on the war, Iran's missile performance, and where we go from here. I hope it is illuminating.

Is this the weirdest Halperin reallocation ever? (Halperin talks about shifting money from "bad" programs that accelerate the arms race to merely "wasteful" ones with no impact either way.)

Annie Jacobsen attributes a quote to Tom Schelling that implies he stopped believing in nuclear deterrence. I can't imagine Tom said it. I am certain he didn't think it. 🧵

In Reuters with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis and myself: Ahead of the Putin-Trump summit, Russia is preparing to imminently test the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile. reuters.com/world/europe/p…

While Trump gets ready to meet Putin in Alaska, Putin is getting ready to test a nuclear-powered cruise missile intended to defeat the Golden Dome.