The Timber Log - 4/18/22 hubs.la/Q018ny890

The Timber Log - 5/2/22 hubs.la/Q019q1rK0

The Timber Log - 5/16/22 hubs.la/Q01bwtLj0

The Timber Log - 6/1/22 hubs.la/Q01cD9Np0

The Timber Log - 6/7/22 hubs.la/Q01d2zSZ0

The Timber Log - 6/13/22 hubs.la/Q01dBhM70

The Timber Log - 7/6/22 hubs.la/Q01gkmT_0

timberpointcapital.com/the-timber-log…

It goes without saying that the past several years have been momentous in many respects, including in the realms of economics and investment markets.  Well befo... timberpointcapital.com/the-fed-reckon…

Our economist, Victor Canto, looks at what pro growth Republicans can learn from the LIz Truss debacle. timberpointcapital.com/what-republica…

It was red, but just a "ripple" not a wave...October CPI brings relief - finally...King dollar may be in for trend change...Inflation is both "sticky" and "flexible"... timberpointcapital.com/the-timber-log…

If we picked our favorite European World Cup team by improvement in inflation...Spain is the clear winner...vamos La Roja!

The recent rise in diesel prices came up twice over Thanksgiving with friends who have service fleets running on the fuel...Regional prices are all up since early '22 (Russia invasion of Ukraine) but New England and Central Atlantic have seen the biggest price spike...

The consumer remains strong based on last week's PCE report...personal savings not so much...Aggregate savings levels (solid blue line) now back to 2008 levels...a decade plus wiped away. Y/Y growth (dotted red line) has never been this negative, albeit from Covid-stimulus highs.

The EIA illustrates the energy transition over the last 20 years from coal to natural gas...the Great Plains states are taking advantage of wind resources but natural gas is cheap, clean(er) and plentiful thanks to U.S. innovation in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling!

2nd biggest decliner in the CPI print yesterday was Used Cars, down 2.9% m/m from October, which continues a multi-month decline from pandemic highs. New car prices were flat m/m, returning to trend. Auto supply is starting to normalize - good news for the holiday shopper!

Bill Ackman Federal Reserve The inflation target only became 2% when central banks could not engineer 3% inflation on the back of global financial crisis. 3% will be the new target. Possibly 4%. Not a disaster scenario either. The economy can function fine with mid-single digit borrowing rates.

The Timber Log is a quick overview of a few of TPCM's current market thoughts. This week we look at the decline in the dollar, weakness in existing home sales and the jockeying for rate cuts among Fed Governors. Have a great weekend! timberpointcapital.com/the-timber-log…