The biggest surprise in the recent NBS data release is the decline in China's manufacturing and infrastructure investment. The manufacturing surge could be ending due to the anti-involution campaign.

Been doing some textual analysis of Qiushi articles that I scraped, definitely more discussion of consumption/domestic demand this year, even a bit of an uptick in some older terms like domestic circulation, though common prosperity is clearly past its prime.

China has been trying to curb steel overcapacity for over a decade. For years, China tried "capacity replacement“ 产能置换 where new steel plants replaced outdated, inefficient ones, but capacity continued to rise. Now China is racing to cut output as domestic demand craters.

Science PhD admissions at Harvard decreased by 75 percent. If Harvard science PhDs declined by 3/4, what does that mean for other universities? US S&T competitiveness rests on the university system. An own goal that will have lasting implications for US-PRC S&T competition...

We all know China is exporting EVs globally 🚗🔋🌏 — but where are they going, and what’s their impact on emerging markets? Ryan Featherston and I spent the past year digging into the data, policies, and experts across emerging markets to find out. (1/3) 👇

TIL China's urban workers truly have the best pension scheme in the world: retire at 60 (55 for female), net replacement rates (pension/pre-retire earnings) at 88% (70.1%) while OECD retire at 66 on average at 61% replacement rate. Yet they still save 1/3 of disposable income.

Happy to share that Ryan Featherston and I are now on video too! Watch us talk about *CHARTS*! And more specifically Chinese EV-related exports and investments in emerging markets. Stay tuned for more! youtube.com/watch?v=3Uy_zx…

As a trade lawyer, settling in to listen to SCOTUS hear the IEEPA tariff case this morning feels like getting ready to watch one of the greatest superbowls ever.

The Rise and Fall of LGFVs: update Apparently, following a nationwide audit in 2023, the central government (NFRA? MOF? who knows) updated its list of LGFVs, and it ballooned to nearly 18,000. That’s according to Caixin; I haven’t seen any official confirmation, let alone the

People’s Daily just published an explainer on why domestic demand is the No.1 policy priority for 2026. Some key highlights: Domestic demand is the fundamental driver of (基本动力) economic development, and a strong domestic market is the strategic foundation (战略依托) of

Nice diagram of land finance model from 人地之间 by 陶然