Is the debasement narrative crowded? If you consider what a narrative becoming crowded means: everyone who could buy has already bought into the narrative and thus there is no incremental demand left. What is key here is sizing the pool of potential buyers. For most trades, the

This is higher probability than the market is pricing and would truly ignite silly season. Trump has been bleeding popularity and needs a big move to reposition himself as a man of the people post the OBBBA. Imagine how excited people would be to get a stimmy. Imagine how

Why is it damned if you do and damned if you don't? To-date the market has not in recent history been challenged by what happens if TCo premium hits or approaches 1.0x in any product across the crypto TCos (the best example would be off GBTC when BTC was ~$20K as a closed end

Startups often think a partnership with a big company will be a shortcut to growth. It pretty much never works. Nor does any other apparent shortcut. There are no shortcuts. The way to get growth is to engage closely with your users.

One of the most important themes in the next 12 months will be widening crypto credit spreads to falling risk free rates, discussed 45min in the link below. DeFi in the last cycle lived in a vacuum with no real connective tissue to legacy fixed income markets. Now as rates fall

f1go.eth I don’t understand how an L1 can secure a fiat stablecoin. The issuer provides security, not the chain. Because regardless of the L1 security, the issuer can freeze addresses. Since the issuer secured the stablecoin, they may as well run the chain, too.

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I say this as someone who was speaking nearly every day with Kevin at some point on LUNA falling, and works in distressed Zero. That is the chance you get an “unwind.” These vehicles can run to 0.1x mNAV and there is nothing shareholders can do anything about it. At a

DAT Mechanics Part 1 Some folks saying this the next LUNA (it’s not). Others are saying there’s nothing to unwind (there is). Think carefully about the mechanics. A lot of these DATs have no leverage so there won’t be any forced selling from getting called on debt. Still

DAT Mechanics Part 2 Now let’s consider the case where DATs have varying levels of leverage. In this case, a DAT levered or not could grief the other DATs of the same underlying by outright dumping the full underlying stash at the right time creating margin calls/cascades for

24/ Why? Because regulators need a "clear perimeter." That’s a polite way of saying they need to know who to call—and who to fine—when things go wrong. Their entire compliance playbook was written for a world of intermediaries.

AI is the #1 national security race. If China wins, USD dies. The US will flood infinite money into AI until the very end. The loop: -Stablecoins create demand -Printing creates liquidity -Liquidity underwrites speculation -AI + media amplify -AI leadership preserves power

Tempo Thoughts Stripe is making a full-stack play from being the fintech middleman (passing point-of-sale data to settlement networks) into owning all three bits - They bought Privy for 70m consumer wallets - They bought Bridge for native stablecoin issuance - They partnered w

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Plasma launched today and trading at $12b FDV (congrats to everyone that invested) Applying Tether’s 68x multiple and assuming you believe the market prices them similarly, implies Plasma generates $176m of revenue a year from the chain Would need ~$4b of USDT on Plasma for the

Quick thoughts on Prediction Market Liquidity: - If we want institutions to start trading Prediction Markets, we need market standardization similar to F&O Markets. Institutions thrive on surety - Market Standardization also enables aggregation of liquidity. This

Founders often ask me what I've done to build a social media following. It's actually quite simple, and boils down to one piece of advice: Be vulnerable. That thing you think you're not supposed to tweet? Tweet it. The story that makes you look weak or insecure? Share it

I still believe the Crypto apocalypse calmed down the appetite for risk. We got the China tariff/trade war on top. We saw $QUBT get smashed to pieces as the laggard, then we saw $HIMS getting wrecked. When the most promising mid cap breakout fail and/or the laggards reject

My best guess is China is doing the financial reset move that we all said the US was going to do - Their answer to the Mara Lago Accords - The Xi Accords China buys up gold and debases currency at sametime - basically doing the MSTR move of nations but with gold But then at a

Thoughts on the market (not a doom post) I still believe BTC will eventually catch up to gold —but it’ll just take longer than everyone is expecting. I wanted to take a step back and reflect on the market more broadly after speaking with many funds and individuals after the