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Anyone expecting the June lows to hold may be disappointed. This chart shows that recession associated lows for inflation adjusted stocks occur with or after rate cycle peaks. Perhaps it's different this time? Though I doubt it!

The vertical lines show initial YC inversion. Since equities discount the economy and inversions precede recessions, an inverted curve increases the probability that stocks ultimately end up lower than when the inversion initially took place. Just look at the arrows!

We have come from an ultra-easy monetary policy where inflation adjusted M2 expanded at a 25% clip to a very stingy negative -5%. A recession has followed every negative 18-month growth, except 1951. Not every recession though, experienced negative real money growth

This chart shows improvement in confidence leads economic recoveries. To read more about it and read a brief article "A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Recession", please click on the link below. pringturner.com/funny-thing-ha…

Pring-Turner stage analysis is a useful construct, linking stock, bond, & commodity cycles to fluctuations in the real economy. Guessing that stage 1 is currently underway, while acknowledging the potential for variability & overlap in a construct of this nature.

April saw our Financial Velocity Indicator trigger its eighteenth buy signal since 1965. Only two of those failed, so we think those are good odds to work with! For more like this check out the Intermarket Review at pring.com

Is it different this time? Our Commodity model has just given a buy signal but this has been preceded by a trend of rising rates. Invariably rates have fallen prior to previous signals reflecting an injection of liquidity. Will this put a cap on the bull market?

The vertical lines tell us when the indicator bottoms out from close to or below the -5% level. There were nine examples of a sub -5% reversal. The average annualized gain over 12-months for REAL stocks was 16.2%. Buy hold was 4%. Read article here bit.ly/3SWLew0

Expanding margin debt is bullish because it means improving confidence and more money flowing into equities. The vertical lines show when the smoothed momentum (KST) triggers sub-zero buy signals. Its current bullish subdued level argues for a multi- month rally.

Looking for a rate decline to stimulate stocks ? Think again. 6 times since 1964 the FF rate has hit a cyclical peak. Stocks declined because of a weaker economy. The 3 exceptions were preceded by a bear market. Either way stocks decline so pray for stable rates

This chart tells us the position of the long-term trend in 2024 is similar to the politically unstable year of 1968. To read the complete article go here pringturner.com/will-2024-be-1…

Arrows show upside reversals in the Coppock Curve for PPI Finished Goods is usually followed by an up wave in CPI inflation. March upswing likely to extend in April due to firm commodity prices. Go here to article on why Fed likely to raise not lower rates pring.com/articles/

This chart is potentially deflationary as the Commodity Bond ratio has begun to break down, joining the 10-year yield. Oil is right at the edge. All are below their 65-week EMA. This would be reversed with a break above the green line but now now it looks deflationary.

When the price oscillator for Michigan Con Sent is above zero stocks are bullish. Below zero stocks are vulnerable but not necessarily bearish. Now the oscillator is rising and the Index is in an uptrend, signaling the all-clear. For more checkout pring.com/intermarket-re…

Our Global Financial Velocity (GFV) Indicator combines the momentum of global stocks, bonds and commodities into one series. The lines show equities are vulnerable when the GFV MA starts to turn down. With so many bulls going into 2025 the recent drop could be problematic.

This chart shows that gold discounts future commodity prices. To learn how this is the first step in the chronological cycle that determines future waves in the annualized CPI read the article Why a Firming Up in the CPI May be Closer than You Think pring.com/articles/

Consumer expectations are low and warn of a possible recession. This chart shows the glass could be half full, as upside reversals from a depressed level were great stock buying opportunities . Only one false positive since 1979. Cut it's wiser to wait for an actual turn.

Consumer expectations are low and warn of a possible recession. This chart shows the glass could be half full, as upside reversals from a depressed level were great stock buying opportunities . Only one false positive since 1979. But it's wiser to wait for an actual turn.