RationalTrades (@rationaltrades) 's Twitter Profile
RationalTrades

@rationaltrades

Independent developer of tools for financial freedom.
Sharing Mathematical model analysis of CPI, options, bitcoin and other financials related subjects.

ID: 1431464359536979976

linkhttps://financialtoolsbuilder.com/ calendar_today28-08-2021 03:51:36

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Either you buy $QQQ or $SPY at a support and risk seeing it going lower. OR You start shorting the $vixy (PUTs at 180-300 days) and bet that the volatility will eventually decrease. Cause $vixy will go down, whether stocks will be up from today or not.

Either you buy $QQQ or $SPY at a support and risk seeing it going lower.
OR
You start shorting the $vixy (PUTs at 180-300 days)
and bet that the volatility will eventually decrease.
Cause $vixy will go down, whether stocks will be up from today or not.
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Wtf is wrong with circular economy ? You are an hairdresser, you pay someone to buy a chair, with the money they buy food, food dealer goes get an haircut. Same dollars. It's always circular, and calculating how fast it turns is called velocity of money.

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We are at profitability of miners close to bear market levels. BTC/Hashrate can still drop 25-30% (unfortunately) But that means we could get a year of market price around 60k for bitcoin...

We are at profitability of miners close to bear market levels. BTC/Hashrate can still drop 25-30% (unfortunately)
But that means we could get a year of market price around 60k for bitcoin...
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$MSTR hitting 2 different supports level. The one in dollar and the one in bitcoin. If we get a little relief on bitcoin dumps, it might hold this level. But on next bitcoin dump, we will hit the $120 levels. At that price it will probably be under 1 mnav, and ready to be bought.

$MSTR hitting 2 different supports level. The one in dollar and the one in bitcoin.
If we get a little relief on bitcoin dumps, it might hold this level.
But on next bitcoin dump, we will hit the $120 levels.
At that price it will probably be under 1 mnav, and ready to be bought.
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The fall of bitcoin is so steep that this rate we can have Bitcoin at $0 by Christmas. Maybe next year we will be able to buy bitcoin for negative amounts...

The fall of bitcoin is so steep that this rate we can have Bitcoin at $0 by Christmas.
Maybe next year we will be able to buy bitcoin for negative amounts...
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The 2021 first top buyers are quite scared of going underwater again. This is the long term cohort that has been selling the most.

The 2021 first top buyers are quite scared of going underwater again.
This is the long term cohort that has been selling the most.
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The only time in history where we had a PE ratio for the S&P above 30 was in 98. Just 2 years before the dotcom bubble implosion. This is also the first time in history where the S&P earnings are so much higher than the money supply. (green line) This also happened in 99 and 07

The only time in history where we had a PE ratio for the S&P above 30 was in 98.
Just 2 years before the dotcom bubble implosion.
This is also the first time in history where the S&P earnings are so much higher than the money supply. (green line)
This also happened in 99 and 07
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Lol wikipedia. This is the pictures wikipedia is using to represent the 2 candidates of the 2024 presidential election. If you search online, this is the ONLY one where there is a smiling person facing a mugshot. Appearance of neutrality has left the room.

Lol wikipedia. This is the pictures wikipedia is using to represent the 2 candidates of the 2024 presidential election.
If you search online, this is the ONLY one where there is a smiling person facing a mugshot.
Appearance of neutrality has left the room.
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If $BITO respect their own description of the fund, Dividend should be around $0.84 for December (both distribution) Given the volatility in the past weeks, I did not look at the option market for an arbitrage opportunity.

If $BITO respect their own description of the fund, Dividend should be around $0.84 for December (both distribution)
Given the volatility in the past weeks, I did not look at the option market for an arbitrage opportunity.
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$Bito dividend is $0.78 for December, pretty close to what we expected. I cannot really make sense of the 6 cents difference though. If the unpaid profit was invested, it should have dropped by 25%, if not, it should have been $0.84. I believe this is management choice here.

$Bito dividend is $0.78 for December, pretty close to what we expected.

I cannot really make sense of the 6 cents difference though. If the unpaid profit was invested, it should have dropped by 25%, if not, it should have been $0.84.
I believe this is management choice here.
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Did someone request a decorrelation from the nasdaq ? We are close to the 2021 dip support. If we don't have a bitcoin treasury company blowing up, we might rebound not far from here. But real bottom can be 33% lower !

Did someone request a decorrelation from the nasdaq ?
We are close to the 2021 dip support.
If we don't have a bitcoin treasury company blowing up, we might rebound not far from here.
But real bottom can be 33% lower !
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It seems like $OKLO has found some kind of support. It might resume the way down, but it could take a long time. (accumulation took 5 months on the way up) It's a good time to unload your puts if you followed my trade. They returned +100/+150%.

It seems like $OKLO has found some kind of support.
It might resume the way down, but it could take a long time. (accumulation took 5 months on the way up)
It's a good time to unload your puts if you followed my trade. They returned +100/+150%.
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The breakout of the Chinese market (HK50) against the S&P is so flat that it hardly seems natural. It's stayed within a 7% range since April. This is a really unlikely behavior when breaking out of a clear technical pattern.

The breakout of the Chinese market (HK50) against the S&P is so flat that it hardly seems natural.
It's stayed within a 7% range since April.
This is a really unlikely behavior when breaking out of a clear technical pattern.
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Let's be real, fidelity may not be the most convenient platform to trade option, but it has the best fills ! Selling an option for $17 instead of $1 never happens on other brokers. (the ask was for a $1 limit order)

Let's be real, fidelity may not be the most convenient platform to trade option, but it has the best fills !
Selling an option for $17 instead of $1 never happens on other brokers. (the ask was for a $1 limit order)
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Why are people pushing $WBD price up ? The offer of $30 cash by paramount ? That’s the same bid WBD rejected last week ! Price will be $27.75 and that's it !

Why are people pushing $WBD price up ? 
The offer of $30 cash by paramount ? 
That’s the same bid WBD rejected last week ! 
Price will be $27.75 and that's it !
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$BITF just completed a massive head and shoulder topping pattern... From all of the miners, this one has the ugliest pattern. (the ones who didn't bounce at all are actually worse moneywise, but not from the TA perspective)

$BITF just completed a massive head and shoulder topping pattern...
From all of the miners, this one has the ugliest pattern. (the ones who didn't bounce at all are actually worse moneywise, but not from the TA perspective)
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$BITO last distribution of the year should be $0.78 Next year we are looking at a 0% dividend for the first few months (or until bitcoin recovery)

$BITO last distribution of the year should be $0.78
Next year we are looking at a 0% dividend for the first few months (or until bitcoin recovery)
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$BITO distribution last distribution of the year is $0.74 Pretty much what we expected. We will resume forecast next year ! Have a good tax optimization season !

$BITO distribution last distribution of the year is $0.74
Pretty much what we expected.
We will resume forecast next year ! Have a good tax optimization season !