x.com/i/article/1974…

Exploring how prediction accuracy evolves over time through brier score analysis was a fascinating dive. More insights on the inner mechanics and behavioral patterns of prediction markets coming soon.

potentially a catalyst for liquidity and market efficiency. could also cause a gold rush for l2 consumer apps targeted at specific domains/niches (sports, politics, crypto, finance, weather, youtube, etc) btw a polymarket super bowl ad would go crazy

the progressive tokenization of physical and traditional financial assets will result in the emergence of a wide range of specultion opportunities. people will be able to bet on “will the market cap of the tokenized real estate in NY surpass $10b by the end of 2026?” or “will

historic shift in motion a new economic primitive is being born you aren’t bullish enough

the landscape is clear - physical and traditional financial assets get tokenized and polymarket serves as the most capital efficient venue for speculating their performance and associated events - opportunity for prediction market events to be offered along traditional financial

"Jeff in particular as he mentioned on CBC earlier is like he's a big believer in tokenization. He's a big believer in all assets are going to be tokenized. It's a superior technology for the exchange of assets and Polymarket is the biggest consumer product that's built on on

bro talks about “no opportunity” in prediction markets like he isn’t sponsored by a pragmatic play wrapper larping as a crypto casino where 80% RTP is considered a win and your balance can vanish mid-spin. what’s the dream there? hit all the gates of olympus bonuses and retire?

pnl swollen like zyzz

that’s exactly why prediction markets have so much upside and potential to grow and become one of the biggest narratives and pmf for crypto. - no matter the current state of the market u can profit as long as you have an edge in a niche/domain - they tap into this innate

this is why blindly copy-trading “insiders” off volume spikes is dangerous. you’re basically outsourcing edge discovery and praying their signal is real or that they won’t dump on you before flipping sides. imagine if the guy actually has insider info, pumps a random share to

sam every time he finds a new human data stream worth scraping

the btc&eth short on hl and the nobel prize market are perfect case studies of insider trading being an inevitable feature of open information economies. two completely different domains(macro, geopolitics) converging under the same principle: when someone holds private

if that guy is really an insider from trump's entourage, then it means that a political announcement will be issued shortly causing a market crash. what could this be? - tariff related (again) (there's a 3% decrease in the polymarket probabilities of us x china tariff

Everyone who likes this post will be added to this folder. Polymarket Traders’ supercycle.

this is indicative of the potential polymarket has to act as a universal, captial efficient venue for speculating crypto but also tradfi assets. also, with the increase in physical and economical assets tokenization, there will emerge not only new trading opportunities but also

Who are your favorite Polymarket traders?

perfect write up. accuracy is a huge moat for pms, and it essentially is their ultimate purpose. these metrics in relation to the resolution time are excellent for assessing performance as well as extracting valuable data for trading in events with a predefined standard

fulham’s coming in with half their lineup injured (robinson, lukic, muniz out, jimenez questionable) they’ve been leaking goals away from home and just got reversed by bournemouth. arsenal on the other hand is sitting first, top defense in the league (only 3 goals conceded), and

yesterday, liverpool–man united felt like free money. nine years of anfield dominance, united barely holding shape, liverpool hitting the post three times and yet they still managed to lose 2–1. pure statistical anomaly. i took it personally. opened a centralized sportsbook, (i