Memo to potential GOP challengers of Trump: The filing deadline for the New Hampshire Primary is barely 2 months away. A strong challenge in that primary has toppled Truman 1952, Johnson 1968, Ford 1976, Carter 1980, and Bush 1992. All it takes to enter is $1,000.

The PM-Pendulum Model gives the Conservatives an 81% chance of winning a majority of seats in the UK election next month. Approval of PM Johnson will keep the electoral pendulum from swinging to Labour, even after 3 terms. Tories are predicted to get 352 seats, Labour 228.

The Primary Model gives Trump a 95% chance of winning a possible match-up with Sanders in November, based on primary performance so far (New Hampshire & South Carolina), plus the first-term electoral benefit. Trump would get 390 electoral votes, Sanders 148.

The Primary Model gives Trump a 91% chance of winning a possible match-up with Biden in November, based on primary performance so far (New Hampshire & South Carolina), plus the first-term electoral benefit. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.

Trump not a bad bet to win reelection newsday.com/opinion/commen… via Newsday

Will economic recession cost President Trump the election? thehill.com/opinion/white-…

The COVID-19 shutdown will cost Americans millions of years of life thehill.com/opinion/health…

Joe Biden lead in polls does not ensure final victory for election thehill.com/opinion/campai…

Military service in World War II produced a generation of Democrats, my analysis of Gallup polls (1945–1953) shows. GI Joe is an unsung hero of what is widely known as the New Deal realignment. Check out my article in PS. dx.doi.org/10.1017/S10490….

For all of you who have been wondering whether I have updated or will be updating my forecast, the answer is an unequivocal NO. And I stand by it, no matter what the polls and poll aggregators say. The Primary Model gives Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning re-election.

It was a perfect storm. A once-in-a-century combination of election-year surprises. A plague and a flood doomed Trump and the forecast, barring a last-minute invalidation of tens of thousands of mail-in ballots in some battleground states. primarymodel.com

A must read!

All this polarization a drama before an empty auditorium.

Biden’s approval ratings are dismal, we argue, because of progressive disenchantment with his failure to deliver on his election promises and a lack of support from those who in 2020 voted against Trump rather than for him. blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2022…

Disapproval of President Biden gives Republicans a 99-percent chance to win control of the House of Representatives in the midterm election this fall. This forecast is based on the effect of presidential approval on seats won by his party in House midterm elections 1946-2018.

Mail ballots and drop boxes all but flipped Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to Biden and helped flip Michigan in the 2020 election. This comes from a 50 (+1) state analysis of the 2016-2020 Democratic vote swing due to mail ballots and drop boxes. primarymodel.com

President Biden’s low approval (hovering at 43 percent throughout October) predicts 246 seats for the Republicans in the House. This forecast is based on the effect of presidential approval on seats won by his party in House midterm elections from 1938 to 2018.

The Primary Model gives Kamala Harris a 75% chance to defeat Donald Trump, with 315 electoral votes for her and 223 for Trump. Granted Harris did not contest any primary, but Biden's primary performance along with his endorsement of her augur well for her success in November.