Two ways of reading this: 1. Markets reach new highs on Biden removal; or 2. Markets reach virtually same level as they've twice turned back from. I don't like his chances, but I didn't both times before. Could have mad a lot trading the swings then. Now? Time will tell.

Must admit this would be remarkable reporting if Biden remained the nominee. Never say never but it seems over.

48 hours on from my 2.7 bet on Biden nominee, I don't feel great but I thought I'd feel worse. Some interesting reporting today that Biden remains very unmoved, but you can never trust these behind-the-scenes stories too much.

Sad news for my bet, but total vindication yet again that media access is way worse than it pretends to be. A load of articles today and yesterday that he was digging in, no-one seems to have gotten this leak a few hours ahead.

I kinda feel it will hinge on one question: Are people deciding based on her or him? Trump won an election where the public were focused on his opponent, and lost one when they focused on him. I suspect the same dynamic will mostly apply here.

If, and it's a big If, Harris maintains positive approval ratings up to election day you'd have to suspect that would translate to a solid popular vote win. Trump has never been a very popular candidate, he was just more popular than Biden who had awful approvals by mid-2024.

The Senate/White House splits in polls are still eye-popping with Harris on the ballot paper.

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