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Open Terms Newsletter

@openterms

Open Terms: Decoding global chaos—markets, politics, and the economy—in everyday language. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

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linkhttps://openterms.beehiiv.com/subscribe calendar_today16-04-2025 23:19:29

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💥 The "TACO trade" (Trump Always Chickens Out) gains traction as markets anticipate Trump's potential retreat from aggressive tariff policies, reducing volatility.

💥 The "TACO trade" (Trump Always Chickens Out) gains traction as markets anticipate Trump's potential retreat from aggressive tariff policies, reducing volatility.
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Markets reacted today as the US & China agreed on a trade‑deal framework—Wall Street kicked off higher on soft inflation but pulled back amid Middle East tensions. Equity premium stretched. Stay tuned.

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Oil surged ~4% as the US began evacuating embassy staff from Iraq, pushing Brent near $70/bbl. Watch how regional risks might shift inflation & Fed policy.

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Treasuries rallied on soft US CPI & a strong 10‑year auction—yields down ~7 bps today, yield curve bull‑steepened slightly.

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Experts warn social media feuds can have real fallout: Musk faced an SEC suit in 2018 for ‘misleading tweets’; today's clash could dent reputations & finances.

Experts warn social media feuds can have real fallout: Musk faced an SEC suit in 2018 for ‘misleading tweets’; today's clash could dent reputations & finances.
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The Fed is cooling but the economy’s heating. Why markets are ignoring warnings—and what that means for your portfolio. 📬 Read more in today's Open Terms. #markets #federalreserve

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🏦 UK Gilts & the pound steadied after PM Starmer publicly backed Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Boost for FTSE 100 banks and retailers, while services PMI hits 10‑month high—a tentative sigh of relief for U.K. markets.

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📈 U.S. June jobs report: +147K new payrolls, unemployment at 4.1%. Equity markets surged to fresh records—but Fed rate cuts now look unlikely. Dollar strengthens, Treasuries tighten.

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🔄 Ether up 0.55% over the last 24 hrs, holding firm above $2.58K. Crypto traders see the solid labor data fueling equity and digital asset gains—even as Fed hikes fade.

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🇺🇸 Bond market watchers: despite ADP’s miss, consensus remains steady—no fireworks—but Trump is ratcheting up pressure on Fed Chair Powell ahead of payroll release.

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This is just completely crazy "Under the new amendment to the One Big Beautiful Bill, gamblers will only be allowed to deduct up to 90% of their losses against their winnings starting in 2026. This means that even if a gambler breaks even, they will still owe taxes on 10% of

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Russia has officially recognized the Taliban as a government, WHICH IS JUST PURE INSANITY. WHAT HAS THE WORLD COME TO..................

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🪙 $SPY S&P 500 & Nasdaq hit record highs again today, US labor resilience fueling risk-on sentiment—but bond yields held firm near 10‑yr highs.