Nigel Gould-Davies (@nigelgd1) 's Twitter Profile
Nigel Gould-Davies

@nigelgd1

Senior Fellow for Russia & Eurasia, IISS. Contributing editor, Survival. Fmr UK Ambassador to Belarus. Film-maker. Stalking survivor. Views mine.

ID: 2297587866

linkhttps://www.iiss.org/people/russia-and-eurasia/dr-nigel-gould-davies calendar_today18-01-2014 09:21:55

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Many dismiss Trump’s ultimatum to Putin. But it feels like something has changed. Trump’s threat carries a deadline —and he has shortened this. He now says Russia’s economy “stinks”. He correctly identifies the oil price as a critical weakness. This is an astonishing shift. More

Many dismiss Trump’s ultimatum to Putin. But it feels like something has changed.

Trump’s threat carries a deadline —and he has shortened this. He now says Russia’s economy “stinks”. He correctly identifies the oil price as a critical weakness. This is an astonishing shift. More
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Europe and U.S. agree that cutting petrodollar flows is key to constraining Russia. But their instruments are now diverging: Europe - sanctions aimed esp at lowering Russian oil price U.S. - “secondary tariffs” that impose choices on others. Alliance must get act together.

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Where is the logic? Trump “punishing” Russia with drastic new tariffs on a major U.S. ally, while rewarding Putin with a coveted summit. This is all over the place.

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Correct. Nor is it about Ukraine’s “neutrality”, as too many voices, including many Russians in the West, seem to believe —or at least argue.

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Engaging piece by John Foreman CBE on Dmitry Medvedev , whose latest rant led Trump to reposition two nuclear subs: “His loose lips finally moved ships” 🤣 A strange human journeys. What wd the M of 2005 think if he cd see his future self 2 decades on? themoscowtimes.com/2025/08/08/med…

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Apart from having no diplomatic experience or knowledge of Russia, Witkoff is the ideal person to negotiate the end of a war with Putin.

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Trump & Putin’s Alaska summit is a “profoundly alarming moment for Europe.” Putin might persuade Trump to accept Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine or lift sanctions. That would cause a “really serious split in the transatlantic alliance” Nigel Gould-Davies apnews.com/article/europe…

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I believe this is right. Palpable Kremlin anxiety when failure to take Kyiv turned short invasion into long war. But Putin has since boiled the frog. Russian society has come to accept huge losses, as long as fighting and dying are well paid. But he still wants to avoid a second

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A fluid and fateful diplomatic moment in Alaska. Europe watches from an anxious distance. Unlike most summits this is not a ceremony to sign agreements already reached. High stakes and immense uncertainty CNN International Polo Sandoval

A fluid and fateful diplomatic moment in Alaska. Europe watches from an anxious distance.

Unlike most summits this is not a ceremony to sign agreements already reached. High stakes and immense uncertainty <a href="/cnni/">CNN International</a> <a href="/PoloSandovalCNN/">Polo Sandoval</a>
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As predicted, if Putin didn’t get Trump to take his side, his goal was to secure a continuation of the diplomatic process without European involvement. Trump’s warning to Europe not to “torpedo” progress is a concern. iiss.org/online-analysi…

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The root cause of the war is Russia’s refusal to accept Ukrainian identity and statehood. Only when this is addressed can there be peace.

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Witkoff claims U.S. got a “concession” from Putin: that U.S. can give security guarantees to its partners. This is astonishing. It implies US needs Russian permission to protect its allies. video.snapstream.net/Play/QyI8qnKcG…

Witkoff claims U.S. got a “concession” from Putin: that U.S. can give security guarantees to its partners. 

This is astonishing. It implies US needs Russian permission to protect its allies.

video.snapstream.net/Play/QyI8qnKcG…