State is doubling down on “highly ranked frosh who barely played year 1” strategy after it didn’t work last year. I will continue to talk myself into these guys and Collins Black looks awesome. 40% Ks 3.67 FIP .526 BABIP on 31% fly balls is unlucky 4 shutout innings in ACC play

Mikey Ryan was 15 spots ahead of Head and Fitz-Gerald in last years draft. Here’s his write up from MLB. 5 ABs at LSU last season

Today's trip down memory lane is my subjective list of highly recruited players (since 21) who transferred to/from State as a freshman, presented without comment. In: Rogers Smothers Sensabaugh Dixon Rice Truitt Jaros Lyons Ossenfort Out: McLaughlin Miranda Ingle Gupton Mako

Sosa committed to Miami

Lanphere has given State 1 WAR combined the last 2 seasons (198 PAs). 81 wRC+ and 0 DRS to get there. Technically a moneyball move but not what I was looking for defensively.

Lanphere Pitches framed: 417 Framing: -0.66 Throwing: 0.07 Blocking: 0.7 Sosa Pitches framed: 941 Framing: -2.15 Throwing: -0.65 Blocking: -0.48 Lanphere has good exit velos at the plate, 17% BBs/18% Ks, but just 32.3% fly balls. If he hits the ball in the air his bat will play

Wyatt Peifer from JMU committed. Career 86 wRC+, but nearly 6 total WAR from his defense at third base. 2024 he was the best defensive infielder in the country with 18.3 DRS.

Synergy has DRS available from '23-'25, here's where Peifer stacks up with what we've seen: Cozart 19 Peifer 18.3 Peifer 10.4 Makarewicz 10.1 Butterworth 9.4 Serrano (CF) 9.3 Groover 8.4 Nolan 8 Head 7.7 Nixon 7.2 McHugh 6.8 Serrano (1B) 6.7 Heavner 6.5 Nixon 6.5 Harrison 6.2

MLB draft starts tomorrow. As always, anybody picked in the first 10 rounds is gone. 11th round and later is when it gets interesting

Losing West and Hogue is tough. Surprised by Hogue— 15 months after a devastating injury, awesome for him. With Andrews back (Peissel, Consiglio looming too), rotation is interesting. And by interesting I mean terrified to see what they do

Offensive needs: 1) add a lower level portal bat to mash at DH 2) Nixon and Head to run. 20 combined steals needs to triple 3) Lanphere, McHugh, Novy, Fraasman combined for 22 HRs and had the 4 highest GB% on the team. Those 4 specifically need to elevate the ball

Seems like it’s an unknown as to whether or not Khamil Pierre will be eligible. If she is, slots in as 1A/1B with Brooks and fits a massive need. Can’t do much better than her in the portal. Biggest strengths: 11.3 BPM 23% DREB 11% OREB 113 oRTG 11% TOs

Without West, State is going to need Peifer to hit. wRC+ fell from a 116 to 67 last year. Biggest difference is BABIP from .361 to .271 and BBs 11% to 7.5%. Other underlying numbers were the same: Ks at 18%, 44% FBs, 8% HR/FBs. Need to get more power + positive BABIP regression

Did the baseball team decide to get serious about NIL?

Andrew Wiggins is another major prospect in next year’s draft. Toolsy but has not come close to his ceiling yet. He has a .909 OPS, 125 wRC+ and more BBs than Ks in 256 career plate appearances, despite a jacked up 58% fly balls and 26% ground balls. Fix that and he will take off

Wiggins is a data darling with some obvious fixes that could make him a monster: swing the bat more and pull fly balls

Bargo has been a full time player in the SEC for 3 years. Known commodity and consistent with 5.3 career WAR. Power is his calling card with 27 homers and 56 XBH in his career. K rate is high at 26% but you live with it, should be a plug and play middle of the order bat

14 and 21 are State’s best draft classes ever. The group of Marohn, Dudan, Head, McHugh and Wiggins project to surpass both of them, with others (Consiglio, Andrews, Nixon) lurking. Nobody will beat the duo of Rodon and Turner but this is 5 legitimately possible big leaguers

Here’s how I see the lineup Locks: McHugh, Nixon, Head, Peifer, Lanphere, Wiggins, Bargo Johnson/Ryan battle at SS, Fraasman/Mitchell/Novy battle for 1 spot Wiggins has negative DRS, but too good of a prospect to DH, McHugh OF likely ends and corner OF spots will be competitive

Three main position player losses are Sosa, DeCriscio and Hogue. They totaled 6.65 WAR. They’ve more or less been replaced by Bargo, Wiggins and Peifer who totaled 5.97 WAR last year and 13.92 in their career. Easily State’s best portal cycle to this point