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New episode of Nullius In Verba ! We (very) critically discuss the classic paper by John Ioannidis 'Why most published research findings are false'. What did he get wrong, and why is it still interesting to read the paper? nulliusinverba.podbean.com/e/episode-56-m…

This adds to the plethora of evidence that seems to contradict wishful thinking and supports some sort of pessimistic expectation management theory (i.e., "robustness").

And typically vice versa, explanation does not guarantee prediction.

I'm still in pursuit of mine..

But wait, it gets better. Using EPI's preferred method shows that the 10th percentile worker has seen a 49% bump since NAFTA, which is just behind wage growth at the 90th percentile. Does this square with the anti-globalization narrative? Not at all.

Every time I read an economist or journalist write something along the lines of: “public consumption” (or investment, or exports, or any other component of national accounts) “explains 39% of GDP growth in 2023”, I despair. No, no, and a thousand times no! The basic

Peer review in econ should include (at least) one referee who is explicitly asked to review the code and data.

This is a useful study for the field. It broadly confirms my prior that the lab sample is more diligent at reading these instructions and as about 10-15% always misunderstand.

Interesting. The trend also starts before Trump's election.

Save the date for the 8th Perspectives on Scientific Error conference on 11, 12, and 13 Februari 2026 in Leiden, the Netherlands. …esonscientificerror2026.wordpress.com This is an event not to miss, bringing together philosophers, statisticians, and metascientists.

Thankfully, there is an upward trend in the use of causal methods in macroeconomics. I suppose this also depends on how you define causal methods. OLS can be considered causal if you are willing to make certain assumptions. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10… PJ Glandon

Interesting. It seems that Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson were right to target Democrats more than Republicans in their book Abundance. Cool book btw.

Greed.

You've seen graphs of American confidence in its institutions, but here's American confidence in its institutions split by personal partisanship. Notice trust in the press and science.

The Turkish Central Bank uses the term "inflation targets" in their graphic. I wonder if this is a deliberate choice, considering they actually have a fixed target (band around 5%).

Humanity's progress is accelerating insanely fast: Stone Age→Farming: 100,000 yrs Farming→Steam: 12,000 yrs Steam→AI: 200 yrs 2000-2014: 100 years of progress in 14. Moore's Law predicted 32x. AI chips did 1000x. Law of Accelerating Returns is getting weird with AI🧵👇🏻

Would such a trend also invert the trend toward specialization?

Recent research shows that people dislike inflation because they believe it reduces their purchasing power. However, this is a misconception because real wages have risen for almost everyone most of the time.

Not “arguably”, Diff-in-Diff is the most popular quasi-experimental design in economics.