A theory of macroprudential regulation in a macroeconomic model of self-fulfilling bank runs, from Manuel Amador and @javierbianchi7 nber.org/papers/w32341

Our paper (@menzie_chinn) showing that foreign yield curves contain information about future US economic activity is officially out in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking! link: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jm… WP version: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Studying the effects of automation in economies with labor market distortions that generate worker rents—wages above opportunity cost—in some jobs, from Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo nber.org/papers/w32536

A study of sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years and the scale of creditor losses and its determinants, from Clemens M. Graf von Luckner, Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch nber.org/papers/w32599

The consequences of sovereign debt crisis on real per capita GDP and social indicators, such as infant mortality and life expectancy, from Juan P. Farah-Yacoub, Clemens M. Graf von Luckner, and Carmen M. Reinhart nber.org/papers/w32600

Bond market data provides evidence of a more “Dovish” policy by the Fed over 2020–2022 and finds it to be a key factor behind the observed increase in inflation, from Luigi Bocola, Alessandro Dovis, Kasper Jørgensen, and Rishabh Kirpalani nber.org/papers/w32620

Are you interested in learning about macroeconomic models with financial frictions? I make the full course material for my PhD class on this topic available here: econweb.umd.edu/~drechsel/teac… Happy semester start from Univ. of Maryland

BREAKING NEWS The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2024 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson “for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity.”

In 1960, South Korea and Taiwan were educational outliers. Hugely important graph by Oliver Kim, echoing a point made in Dani Rodrik (1995). This fact is crucial to understanding East Asia’s economic success.

Join us for the livestream of the launch of #AlUlaCEME2025, where policymakers meet to discuss ways to face global challenges. x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Questioning the macro benefits of Keynesian stimulus. Four case studies across three countries show that temporary cash transfers did not stimulate the macroeconomy, from Valerie A. Ramey nber.org/papers/w33503

Working from home has stabilized at about 25 percent of all full worked days in the US according to a new analysis of 9 different US datasets, from Shelby Buckman, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, and Steven J. Davis nber.org/papers/w33508

The effect of exposure to AI and machine learning technologies on wage earnings and employment, from Menaka Hampole, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence Schmidt, and Bryan Seegmiller nber.org/papers/w33509

Boston Fed economists have developed a new model that uses data to break down the contribution of supply and demand factors to inflation. Read more: bit.ly/425pMIh

*** The next step for Trump's economic policy *** President Tump loves tariffs. Tariffs are taxes on the consumption of imported goods. What about boldly following through and... extending his favorite policy tool to all goods? Hear me out…

Tariff shocks can lead to short-run recessions, as consumers both at home and abroad postpone purchases. These recessions outweigh the traditional welfare effects of tariffs, from Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie, and Ludwig Straub nber.org/papers/w33726

Book Summary: “Theory of Games and Economic Behavior” tap, hold, load 4k

Public debt levels are both higher than before the pandemic and rising faster in economies that account for 80% of global gross domestic product. See our Chart of the Week blog for more on how to foster resilience. imf.org/en/Blogs/Artic…

In Italy, a major tax credit favored middle earners and boosted votes for incumbents, revealing a political-economy tradeoff, from Silvia Vannutelli nber.org/papers/w33973

Bank industry opponents killed US regulators' 2023 "Basel Endgame" proposal that aimed to meet international standards and raise capital requirements. These two goals are separable, from Stephen G. Cecchetti, Jeremy C. Kress, and CecchettiSchoenholtz nber.org/papers/w33982