The spring home sales season is arriving under thick economic clouds, high mortgage rates, wavering consumer confidence and tariff wars. It's like waiting for Punxsutawney Phil to emerge on Groundhog Day. Will buyers see their own shadow? Bloomberg tinyurl.com/4re5ttcd

New Radiohead album on the way? Yes please! pitchfork.com/news/radiohead…

The US real estate industry has been eager for interest-rate relief in recent years. But not quite like this. Read my latest with mrgopal (gift link below) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Just a major blow to the housing market. Not only are yields rising across the board on government bonds, but the extra spread on mortgage backed securities is surging.

“It’s sort of like we’re on tornado watch,” said Garrett Manis at BMH Supply in Atlanta. The latest tariffs add ~$12,800 to the cost to build a single-family home — with more pain ahead if lumber gets hit. From me + mrgopal: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The #tariffs have put homebuilders in a tough spot. With costs to build a home projected to rise $12,800, they're weighing ALL options -- including Uber. “I never wanted to be a driver... But I’m open to doing what I have to do.” shorturl.at/RQkkD +Norah Mulinda

The #housing boom is fading. But uncertainty is so high, even top forecasters admit their crystal balls went cloudy after the tariff wars began. “Sometimes your best forecast is to say you don’t have one.” Bloomberg w/Jonnelle Marte MikeSasso shorturl.at/nJ2g9

Next week is chock-full of data that will provide a window on the economy's performance and prospects. Up first on Tuesday is the Conference Board consumer confidence survey. When this index falls by more than 20 points in 3 months, recession invariably follows. It was down 17

Here we go on this week’s data storm. The Conference Board consumer confidence survey fell sharply to 86 in April. It is off 19.3 points in the past 3 months. Just shy of the recession threshold of 20. Unless the trade war cools off very (very) soon, recession appears dead-ahead.

Homebuyers in Florida are in no rush. There's so much to choose from and now for the first time in a while, prices are falling. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

There's no bounce to the spring home sales season this year. In fact, other than the Covid 19 lockdown in 2020, it's the weakest since 2012. Bloomberg Redfin bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The spring was poised for a rebound until President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff bombshell sent shock waves through financial markets and pushed house hunters back into hiding. Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Trump's pressure campaign on Fed Chair Powell to unlock home sales by lowering rates risks doing just the opposite, experts say.  “We want low rates, no one would argue that. It’s just putting pressure on the Fed isn’t the way to do it.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Trying to buy or sell a house right now? Does it feel impossible? You’re not alone. Sarah Holder breaks down the frozen US market with mrgopal and Daryl Fairweather, PhD | Chief Economist on the Big Take podcast. 🎙️ Listen now: link.podtrac.com/clw76i9t

Home-purchase contracts in the US were canceled at a record rate for July as buyers catch "economic nausea." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Concerns about property appraisals in Baltimore are rattling a $140 billion lending market — and the fallout risks hitting Wall Street w/Patrick Clark bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

In the New York City suburb of Greenwich, Connecticut, trophy mansions are shattering sales records. Fearing a market correction, buyers are cashing out equity gains and looking for properties near New York City. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The biggest drop in mortgage rates in a year is opening up savings for homeowners. On Tuesday, the volume of borrowers locking in rates surged to the highest level for any single day since 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

For the first time, people are paying lower prices for new homes than existing ones. And that's even before the crazy incentives homebuilders are offering now like sub-4% mortgage rates. Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Our surveys show incentives are increasing over time, even as the pace of sales has weakened. Right now, housing weakness isn't just lack of affordability but concern about jobs (and the value of those homes).