the next prediction market winner will have protocol-owned liquidity provisioning this is how gmx and hyperliquid won over the perps sector quickly bootstrap liquidity for the long-tail markets, will creates enough differentiation for a user flywheel

sports is the only prediction market category with: 1) frequent events 2) tons of viewers 3) scalability - ppl can hedge, use data, lines are efficient there needs to be another category for people to bet on every day politics too infrequent, all else not scalable today

why prediction markets for streaming/word mentions will never scale: 1) insider trading will deter MMs 2) content isn’t structured or consistent enough to price true odds accurately 3) no ability to properly hedge why am i wrong?

the biggest tribal wars in crypto no longer involve generalized chains kalshi vs polymarket hyperliquid vs lighter app layer season

the most meaningful prediction market metric is fees, not volume: - a major chunk of volume occurs on minimal EV trades on 99.9c shares - if users are not paying fees at scale, hard to justify organic product demand would love to see Kalshi publicly release their fee stats

when is the right time for polymarket to add fees? they launched 5 years ago

feel like perps on athletes' scoring averages would be cool e.g. take lebron, his perp would trade between 20-30 pts during a season and if there are injuries, the perp just settles at the current value lots of price swings b/t games, could have super high lev, lots of liq...

new onchain sports books can't compete on marketing spend vs DraftKings, Fanduel, the Vegas books... but just like hyperliquid, they can compete on upside

this thesis is playing out faster than i thought

much like how crypto tends to have 4 year cycles around btc halvings, prediction markets will have 4 year cycles around presidential elections prediction market volume will continue to be cyclical over 4 years until onchain books take over sports

two solutions to insider trading on prediction mrkts: 1) it gets banned, similar to securities mrkts, or else liq will just not exist over time 2) we invent a new type of (insider trading) tax on PnL, similar to how we invented MEV surplus re-distribution

i think the main takeaway from this is that people want to be "right" and see their bet through all the way to the end

ethereum and spacex have the same valuation avalanche and neuralink have the same valuation

hot take: the main point of providing liquidity on prediction markets is to get sniped :)

People forget how much of a volume driver 0dte markets are for long term prediction markets eg price of trump presidential odds by end of day on presidential election market

We 1kx just released the most extensive report on monetization of the crypto industry to date: The 1kx Onchain Revenue Report (H1 '25) aggregates verified onchain fee data across 1,200+ protocols - mapping where users pay, how value flows, and which sectors are driving

Thankful that I have a job!

what if the next big regulatory arbitrage opportunity is casino table games Blackjack but on order books Now all table games are “event contracts”, and all abstracted away on frontends

I’m in Buenos Aires this week, dm me if you’d like to catch up :)

If the point of a prediction market is to reveal truth, but the ones that bring truth the fastest are not permitted to signal it, then what is the point?