US new crop #corn sales are their strongest at this time since 2021. However, the vast majority of the strength in 2021 was big sales to China. This year, we have zero bushels sold to China, but big sales to a diverse range of our traditional top destinations. #oatt

Huge jump (+10% week-on-week) in Argentina #wheat ratings to sit at a whopping 61% G/E as the tail-end of planting season nears its close, reaching 98.3% complete. #oatt

Well, we didn't break the all-time high DAP/corn ratio this week. Updated the graph to include Q4 and Q1 months that now have open interest. If the market values did not change from COB yesterday, we are in line to set a lot of new high's for a lot of weeks (dotted line)

If you follow the #fertilizer markets at all, you know the US has had a #phosphate supply problem for quite some time. June trade data was just released this morning and combined US DAP/MAP imports were ~95% below average, marking their lowest in any month since Dec '17. #oatt

The lack of needed #phosphate imports highlights the risk of our growing reliance on Saudi due to the ongoing CVD rates on our former top suppliers (Morocco/Russia). With US having to compete directly with India for Saudi phosphate, fixing the supply issue becomes harder. #oatt

Another week of monster new crop #corn sales @ 124.5 mbu brings our cumulative '25/'26 total to 464 mbu. That's now more than double where we sat at this time last year and continues to be the hottest pace seen since 2021. #oatt

An update to this--huge weekly new crop #corn sales to each of these major destinations again to keep their respective paces sharply ahead of years past: Mexico: 16.1 mbu South Korea 15.8 mbu Colombia: 13.0 mbu Japan 11.7 mbu Still no sales to China on the books. #oatt

A final note on the huge weekly new crop #corn sales: Unknown destinations accounted for the biggest portion @ 50.3 mbu. Cumulative '25/'26 #corn sales to unknown destinations now total 119.99 mbu, their 2nd highest on record at this time, trailing only '11/'12. #oatt

Great conversation today with Jesse Allen !

Both #corn (58.7 mbu) and #soybean (19.0 mbu) export inspections came in above their respective top-end trade estimates. Both remain well ahead of the seasonal paces needed (especially corn) to reach USDA's export targets--will USDA acknowledge it on tomorrow's report? #oatt

Shockingly large increases in the US #corn crop from USDA this morning (month-on-month: yield +7.8 bpa, acres +2.2M). The below maps show a highlight of where these increases are coming from, with record state level yields seen in wide swaths of the country. #oatt

I think the main reason we didn't see #corn limit down immediately following the huge #USDA supply increase this morning comes from the below. More often than not, #USDA revises both acreage and yield lower from the Aug report into their final January estimate. #oatt

Huge #corn yield aside—this acreage increase is very odd... Since 2005, #USDA has only adjusted #corn acres from the June est to Aug 5 times—today was the only increase. In the prior 4 (‘08, ‘19, ‘22, ‘24), acreage was cut from Aug to final every year; totals on chart. #oatt

An update on yesterday’s chart, now looking at changes from June to FSA data (was Oct, now Aug). In the last 20 years, USDA had only cut #corn acres from Mar to June and followed up with an increase into incorporation once (2010: +0.35M, over 6x smaller than yesterday). #oatt

Biggest week of new crop #soybean sales so far this year at 41.6 mbu; #corn sales down from week prior but still big at 80.6 mbu. Polar opposite stories when we look at cumulative '25/'26 sales totals: #Corn: 544 mbu (+208% y/o/y) #Soybeans: 173 mbu (-19.7% y/o/y) #oatt

Hearing that India just locked up 600K tons of DAP from Saudi Arabia for Sept/Oct shipment which is 70% of what they exported last year for those 2 months. N.A. farmers, hope you were serious about cutting back. S.A. was our best bet for imports (lowest tariff rate).

I was honored to take part!

Kind of a boring export inspections report this morning with the only real standout being an 8-week high in #milo (#sorghum) shipments @ 3.3 mbu, split between Ethiopia & S. Sudan. The lack of Chinese demand has USDA pegging '24/'25 exports at 95 mbu, a 6-year low. #oatt

#China's official July import data was released today, showing another record month of #soybean imports from #Brazil last month @ 10.393 MMT. This is also the first time in history that China's #soybean imports from Brazil have exceeded 10 MMT in three consecutive months. #oatt

A highlight of the longer-term trend of the US losing market share to Brazil in China's #soybean imports. We've officially got 0 bushels of '25/'26 #soybeans sold to China. For context, we had 40 mbu on the books at this time in '24, previous 5YA for the week is 218 mbu. #oatt