🇸🇪 Today Thedéen's Riksbank showed its true colour for the first time. Doves.

🇺🇸 Manufacturing capex plans seem to be sinking

🇸🇪 The most disturbing chart from the NIER survey. Real estate agents basically warn about a tough autumn and winter for house prices...

🇺🇸 Hmmm... Sure...

🇸🇪🇪🇺 Weaker Swedish manufacturing PMI. Has been a canary in the coalmine for the euro area historically. Will we see an unexpected drop for euro area PMI the coming months?

🇺🇸 CEOs became less pessimistic in Q3 according to Conference Board's survey. However, they at the same time signaled increased net reductions of the workforce...

🇺🇸 This time is different... or...

🇺🇸 US PPI should continue to climb. Much too early to believe that recent CPI numbers is proof that tariffs won't push up prices...

🇺🇸 The overall UoM consumer confidence data has been a very poor leading indicator of the economy since COVID-19. However, the labour market part has been much more accurate and it's currently looking hideous...

🇺🇸 Philly Fed... Something to think about ahead of Jackson Hole perhaps...

🇺🇸 Ahead of nonfarm payroll week it's a little bit interesting to note that basically all gains during President Trump's term has been within Education & Health Services... not really the employment focus areas of the current administration.

🇺🇸 WALLER: 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HAS BEEN KIND OF ANCHORED - that is kind of missing the whole point when 10y10y is back to 6% and climbing...

🇺🇸 Strong ISM non-manufacturing orders. But it's usually a lagging indicator, not leading. It tells you retail sales were fine the past six months...

🇺🇸 Flight from the labour market seems to hide a much more negative trend than headline numbers indicate.

🇺🇸 Low PPI helping markets but on the tariff discussion - note that finished core consumer goods increased quite much m/m...

🇩🇪 Looking good...

🇺🇸 There are of course many reasons for record high US profit margins but I would claim that the quite irresponsibly huge fiscal policy stimulus that has been going on since 2017 could be the most important one. Fiscal stimulus tends to land in the companies' pockets eventually.

🇺🇸 Unchanged JOLTS job openings, weak JOLTS hires and consumers point to rising unemployment.

🇪🇺 Not really sure why the euro area inflation print for September is described as high. According to ECB's data, the seasonally adjusted m/m rate was lower than the inflation target on an annualized basis...

🇺🇸 While GDP continues to be strong (but with all growth in H1 coming from IT & software investments), leading labour market indicators keep deteriorating. Challenger hiring is today's example...