Back end #yields rising, front end falling. What's that called again? $SPY $QQQ making new ATH's. $VIX sub 15. Seems like everything's a go! I guess nothing can stop this train except maybe a tweet or two. No risk at all, really?

$SPY hit $641.46 pre market on July 31. We're closing to tagging that today. Then what? Getting long at these levels seems like the risk isn't worth the reward. Maybe we hit $650? $VIX sub 15 isn't pricing in any risk. Do you stay in cash & wait for pull back or buy puts?

For $SPY, is volume confirming price? Bullish close for sure. I'd have more confidence buying highs if volume was RISING with price, not FALLING. With $VIX sub 15, seems like options are cheap. Maybe time to start buying puts here. Thoughts?

$MSFT and $NVDA are 15% of $SPY. $MSFT is showing weekly RSI of 76. $NVDA is showing weekly RSI of 73. Seems like sideways action OR pullback in these two are possible outcomes to reset overbought conditions. Upside likely limited here. So do you buy or sell here?

Japan’s five-year government bond auction saw a demand ratio that was weaker than the 12-month average amid renewed concerns over poor liquidity and volatility in the nation’s debt market bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

$Yields rising across the board. Polymarket odds of NO rate cut in Sept have gone from 13% to 21%. 25point cut odds gone from 80% to 75%. Will the fed cut rates into rising inflation? Jackson Hole next week should be volatile. But the dip or sell the rip?

$VIX starting to rise. Looking at Aug/Sept positions, big put OI below 20 with gamma flip point at 19.8. Are there any potential catalysts that could get VIX through 20? If so, we could see 25 quickly. Like a beach ball being held underwater, pressure is ready to pop.

$SPY TEN, yes TEN straight trading days of alternating green/red days. You all know what to do tomorrow 👊

Unacceptable Views First Squawk This auction shows weak demand. The 53.3% of bids accepted at the lowest price indicates insufficient higher-priced bids to fill the offering, relying heavily on marginal ones. Compared to prior auctions (e.g., 86-95%), it's improved but still leans weak, with yields up slightly

$Yields rising again. 10 year hit 3.87% early april when market sold off. If inflation is rising and fed doesn't cut, maybe Trump might want to cause market sell off to get rates lower again. Is he more concerned about interest costs on US debt or equity markets?

$ES $SPY 4 Hour uptrend support about to break or bounce? $VIX above 15 again. $Vix gamma flip at 19.8 with big positive OI at 25. If we get through 20, 25 could come fast. Anything on deck that could cause that kind of vol? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...... BUCKLE UP!

$VIX to hit 21 this week? Gamma flip at 19.8 with big call open interest at 25. Could be quick move to 25. How much longer can this beach ball be held underwater?

A quote from a talk I gave over 25 years ago:

VIX up for the 3rd consecutive trading day. The beach ball is going to pop out of the water soon. 🚧

$ES support on 4hr timeframe has broken. Last couple times this happened we saw either largely sideways action (far left) and then 3.5% sell off (middle). What happens next here? Sideways, sell off or up? PLACE YOUR BETS! Starting to long $SPY puts here.

$SPX less than 20 point implied move today