Kevin Erdmann (@kaerdmann) 's Twitter Profile
Kevin Erdmann

@kaerdmann

I discovered a new framework for understanding the housing bubble, the financial crisis, and costly housing markets.

See my substack link for ongoing analysis.

ID: 178889277

linkhttps://kevinerdmann.substack.com/ calendar_today15-08-2010 23:43:04

34,34K Tweet

8,8K Followers

635 Following

Arnaud Bertrand (@rnaudbertrand) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This is, without exaggerating, one of the most extraordinary things a US Treasury Secretary ever said. It should be mandatory viewing for all citizens of US "allies", Europeans first and foremost. What Bessent is saying is that the US will now treat US allies' wealth as an

Jordan Weissmann (@jhweissmann) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Conservatives have been arguing that while overall job growth may be slowing, native-born employment is soaring. Jed Kolko has a great post today about how that's not true; it's based on a misunderstanding of the BLS data. First, here's his full explanation of the key reason.

Conservatives have been arguing that while overall job growth may be slowing, native-born employment is soaring.

<a href="/JedKolko/">Jed Kolko</a> has a great post today about how that's not true; it's based on a misunderstanding of the BLS data.

 First, here's his full explanation of the key reason.
Kevin Erdmann (@kaerdmann) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Literally, the reason we have a trade deficit is because foreign savers already invest billions into American assets every year. So, the only change here is that the capital will be invested at the president's discretion with the federal government as stakeholder.

Kevin Erdmann (@kaerdmann) 's Twitter Profile Photo

"In that footnote they asked the right question with shocking specificity. Why would the loss of net worth be exogenous (an outside force with explanatory power) for construction employment? And yet…" Conventional Wisdom, revisited, by Kevin Erdmann open.substack.com/pub/kevinerdma…

Lance Lambert (@newslambert) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Austin, Atlanta, and Dallas boast 'appropriately supplied' lot inventory—L.A. & Philly homebuilders still struggle to find lots Ali Wolf: 'The slower pace of construction contributed to the 5-year high [in lot supply]' My latest for ResiClub: resiclubanalytics.com/p/housing-mark…

Austin, Atlanta, and Dallas boast 'appropriately supplied' lot inventory—L.A. &amp; Philly homebuilders still struggle to find lots

<a href="/AliWolfEcon/">Ali Wolf</a>: 'The slower pace of construction contributed to the 5-year high [in lot supply]' 

My latest for ResiClub: 
resiclubanalytics.com/p/housing-mark…
Kevin Erdmann (@kaerdmann) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Over the past 30 years, federal debt/GDP has been stable or declining except for the aftermath of recessions. The 1st step toward a manageable federal debt is NGDP targeting & a stable business cycle. And a housing boom will also help. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1LkPb #FRED St. Louis Fed

Over the past 30 years, federal debt/GDP has been stable or declining except for the aftermath of recessions.
The 1st step toward a manageable federal debt is NGDP targeting &amp; a stable business cycle.
And a housing boom will also help.

fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1LkPb #FRED <a href="/stlouisfed/">St. Louis Fed</a>
Kevin Erdmann (@kaerdmann) 's Twitter Profile Photo

2001-2005 was famously a bear market in housing because existing homes for sale is a measure of supply and supply lowers home prices.

2001-2005 was famously a bear market in housing because existing homes for sale is a measure of supply and supply lowers home prices.
Edward Conard (@edwardconard) 's Twitter Profile Photo

During the 1950s and ’60s, some 20% of Americans would typically move each year. In 2024, only 7.8% of Americans moved, the lowest rate logged since 1948. Aging, two-earner couples, and high housing costs are all factors stalling geographic mobility. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

During the 1950s and ’60s, some 20% of Americans would typically move each year. In 2024, only 7.8% of Americans moved, the lowest rate logged since 1948. Aging, two-earner couples, and high housing costs are all factors stalling geographic mobility.
edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
Parker Ross (@econ_parker) 's Twitter Profile Photo

During a chat with RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research earlier, we were pontificating about the broader implications of weak office-using job growth. I realized I haven't included that metric in my usual jobs report updates, so I whipped up a quick chart. The trend over the last couple years is rather

During a chat with <a href="/RenMacLLC/">RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research</a> earlier, we were pontificating about the broader implications of weak office-using job growth.

I realized I haven't included that metric in my usual jobs report updates, so I whipped up a quick chart.

The trend over the last couple years is rather
Rep. Eric Swalwell (@repswalwell) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I want this to be absolutely clear — these masked men — roaming around like bank robber bandits — will be unmasked in a Democratic majority. Literally and figuratively. There will be accountability for the terror they’ve brought to our communities. It’s all coming out.

Kevin Erdmann (@kaerdmann) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I’m surprised there hasn’t been some vigilante reaction to do harmless but unpleasant things to the ICE thugs. Like tossing stink bombs at them or into their cars, etc.

Lance Lambert (@newslambert) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Homebuilders court investors as unsold completed new-build inventory hits 15-year high This week, Lennar—a homebuilder ranked No. 129 on the Fortune 500—launched Lennar Investor Marketplace. It's a portal for mom-and-pop landlords to find deals from Lennar

Homebuilders court investors as unsold completed new-build inventory hits 15-year high

This week, <a href="/Lennar/">Lennar</a>—a homebuilder ranked No. 129 on the Fortune 500—launched Lennar Investor Marketplace. It's a portal for mom-and-pop landlords to find deals from Lennar
Jason Harrison (@nominalthoughts) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The original tweet is wrong, the quote tweet is wrong, the tweet with the screenshot of the quote tweet is wrong and the quote tweet quote tweeting the tweet with the screenshot of the quote tweet is also wrong

The original tweet is wrong, the quote tweet is wrong, the tweet with the screenshot of the quote tweet is wrong and the quote tweet quote tweeting the tweet with the screenshot of the quote tweet is also wrong