I am happy to see my JMP as a Boston Fed working paper! I show how, in a small open economy, production networks alter the elasticity of that economy's CPI to changes in sectoral technology, factor prices, and import prices. Here's a link to the paper: bit.ly/3AfbHOE

The Bundesbank's research centre has resources to hire one or more visiting macro researchers, on contracts from 6 months to 2 years. Ideal for a sabbatical. We would also consider new PhDs who want to spend some time with us before starting a job elsewhere. DM me if interested.

Updated draft with a new title. Extended model that explicitly considers the early withdrawal policy and the withdrawal decision. Check it out!

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Interesting to see some basic demand theory applied to tariff choices. So… What’s wrong with it? Used in isolation on a single small trading partner the formula makes some sense. But if applied widely to many non trivial ones it does not. 1/2

Totally brilliant.

📢📊Can professional forecasters be "Rationally Inactive"? Along with the great Isaac Baley we wrote a VOXEU Column to discuss the main findings of our recent paper "Lumpy Forecasts". cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…

New paper on recent US tariffs with Matt Rognlie and Adrien Auclert Our focus: effects of temporary increases in tariffs (“tariff shocks") Three Qs: 1 Will tariffs lead to a recession? 2 Will they reduce the trade deficit? 3 Why are they not appreciating USD? (as in std theory) 🧵