FOMC cuts rates -25bps as expected to 3.50-3.75% SEP unexpectedly median rate forecast for 2026 held at 3.4%. Hawkish.

Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…

In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed: - Upgraded GDP forecasts - Eased inflation (PCE) forecasts - Kept interest rate forecast for 2026, 2027, 2028 and 'Longer run'

🇺🇸 #FED SAYS IT WILL BUY $40 BILLION OF TREASURY BILLS NEXT 30 DAYS - BBG

Fed maintains only pricing one cut next year which suggests the cycle is essentially over, but SPX only crawling lower and Dollar is softer. Fully discounted? Expectations new Fed chair will change this bearing next year?

In accordance with the FOMC implementation note issued December 10, we will make adjustments to standing overnight repurchase agreement (repo) operations effective December 11. Full statement: nyfed.org/3KndFla

Four soft dissents (in addition to the two public dissents) against today's rate cut (H/T Nick Timiraos)

Here's the link to the upcoming FOMC press conference: youtube.com/watch?v=zzh5Ub… Note: no holiday music.

What breaks first on the $SPX: - 6,900 - 6,820 This is an hourly chart

Powell walks to the podium. No Darth Vader music.

For big picture context, here is the S&P 500 (log scale) with the Fed's historical effective benchmark rate and Balance sheet:

All these AI questions and nothing about asking what he plans to do with his retirement in May...

POWELL: IF YOU GET AWAY FROM TARIFFS INFLATION IS IN THE LOW 2S

There you go Matt. Asking Powell what he wants his legacy to be. 'Kept to the helm of the dual mandate'

He has definitely thought about what he is going to do next...

Last half hour of US exchange trade, Powell is done and SPX eminis at 6,900

$SPX doesn't resolve to a break either higher or lower after cutting rates, seeing dissent, maintaining forecast for only 1 cut in 2026. The 9-day range (as %age of spot) is lowest since Dec 17, 2024 - up to when the Fed cut and upgraded its rate forecast. Grind ahead.