Talked with a few friends this evening who are in different companies/sectors. Basically, if they don't provide some clarity this weekend on the tariffs - show some movement based on negotiations - we are heading into a recession. From Monday, companies are taking firm actions to

BREAKING: Bitcoin’s losses accelerate, now trading below $79,000, as markets brace for US equity market futures to open.

From this point onwards, Sunday is also a business day.

Brutal timing of $GOOGL Wiz acquisition. When you also consider that it was an all cash acquisition. $Wiz truly won.

Why markets are crashing? They lied about the tariffs being 'targeted' and 'reciprocal'. None of that math makes sense and it lacks intellectual rigor. When Trump said 10% on all nations -- the futures rose 1.5% on that news. That win would have raised the $600b he wanted and

Reasons why I see legs for the selloff to go on —absence of Fed or Trump put. The following focuses on why Fed put is elusive: 1) The current selloff is conditional on assuming Fed will cut 5 times this year. But all FOMC member said they need more “clarity “ before they cut

We calculated that post Trump “put” today, the tariff mix is actually worse —China exports more consumer goods to US than other countries, so boosting that (to 125%) relative to others will boost the hit to consumption goods.

Trump’s tariffs were designed to kill China. But here’s the twist: China’s MASSIVE domestic market will keep it afloat. The real economic fallout is happening in a different bloc—one that depends FAR MORE on exports. And it’s already starting to crack: 🧵

Game over

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