Important piece in which I say: "While there could be benign explanations for these visits, the totality of the information available points to a possibility that Iran’s SPND is seeking to sustain its nuclear weapons-related knowhow by tapping Russian expertise."

Musk: Steve, the real question I keep asking the team is whether today’s LLMs can reason when they leave the training distribution. Everyone cites chain-of-thought prompts, but that could just be mimicry. Hsu: Agreed. The latest benchmarks show that even Grok4-level models

Curious to me that there's such a focus on Washington on things like banning Chinese drones (i.e. DJI drones), but that there doesn't seem to be the same focus on cheap Chinese origin Network Attached Storage (NAS). Widely sold in the US at a fraction of the cost.

If you have thoughts on the state actor national security or WMD risks of AI please reach out. I'm writing a series of reports and am looking to have background conversations.

If anyone sees a good deal on any of those Nvidia H20 GPUs that China apparently doesn't want, please let me know. I'd love one to run GPT-OSS locally!

Some nonpro folks scoffed when I said this. Snapback has been effectively inevitable since Israel's strikes on iran and likely influenced the timing.

Inevitable. Still time to cut a deal though.

The EU solves the problem of the export control regimes being stalled by figuring out how to adopt controls unilaterally. An important development.

Latest move to relax uav related export controls. Potential to substantially open up US military UAV exports. But how will MTCR members respond?

What we need to do is like together this network of stargates in some way.

Snapback is the start of the next process rather than an end. I think the next negotiation after snapback will be sanctions deferral for iaea access.