There's no foreign exodus from US Treasuries in high-frequency data. The blame for rising yields lies closer to home. We've run huge budget deficits for a very long time. Unexpected shocks - like COVID and now the trade war - will wake markets up and push interest rates higher...

I've spoken with three small business owners who are devastated, trying to figure out how to survive, and now demoralized seeing the largest company on the planet get exempted from what is likely to put them and their dozens of employees out of business. A more thoughtful

So I am guessing something like this happened: 1. Jeff Bezos called Trump and told him 70% of the stuff sold on Amazon will go up in price by 100% next week. 2. Tim Cook called Trump and said iPhones are going up in price by 100% next week. 3. Michael Dell called Trump and

Pension funds in Canada and Denmark are pulling back or hitting pause on their US investments, citing concerns over Trump’s unpredictable policy decisions. It’s a notable shift, especially considering how much the US stock market relies on global investors. As of early 2025,

My goodness. China is going to make Donald beg and plead for mercy. Get ready for Xi to do some insane humiliation rituals on Donald all week long.

The Chinese Government has lifted the secrecy clause that the luxury brands had in place the Chinese Manufacturers and now the manufacturers are exposing your favorite “luxury” brands and letting everyone know it all comes from them.

Barry Sternlicht recently gave a VERY insightful interview about tariffs and what it means for real estate prices - what he said is troubling: "The promotion of American manufacturing is a great idea, but we are not a manufacturing nation... We only have 13 million jobs of 160

I don’t know one real macro thinker who isn’t very, very concerned. Not one.

Many say, "The US military ultimately backs the USD and USTs", and that is true...but per below, Chinese components back the US military...and Chinese factories make those Chinese components...and the US is tariffing those Chinese factories... Do you see the problem yet?

We went from exempting semis and electronics on Saturday, to backtracking on Sunday, and now banning NVDA sales to China. Who is investing into this chaos?

Another day. Another horrendous business survey. Services companies in the NY Fed region anticipate rising costs, declining pricing power (so terrible for margins) and a dramatic collapse in their capital spending plans.

🚨 PRELIM ANALYSIS 🚨- The new Ways & Means draft will cost over $5 trillion. And more than $5.5 trillion if made permanent. That’s 50%-60% more than a straight extension! Link to follow

Restructuring advisors watching private credit: - "Work has doubled in 3-4 years" - "80% of complex cases now include private credit" - Default rate jumped from 3.6% to 8.1% (Fitch) Somehow these stats didn't make it into the fundraising decks

Individual investors are increasingly driving the market: Retail investors’ stock market share hit a record 36% in late April, according to JPMorgan. This is more than TRIPLE the 10-year average of 12%. Furthermore, the YTD average share is currently 21%. This comes as market

BREAKING: Fed Caught Quietly Bailing Out Bond Market with $43.6B Injection. No buyers? No problem. The Fed just snapped up billions in Treasurys: $8.8B in 30-year bonds in a single day and 43.8B in total last week. THE BIG PRINT HAS JUST BEGUN.

The claim that the Big, Beautiful Bill cuts taxes is a lie. The real cost of government that taxpayers must bear is total spending. Since this bill increases spending, it's a tax hike, not a tax cut. Americans will ultimately pay the cost with higher inflation and interest rates.

You know we fucked up badly when U.S. credit default swaps are priced just as expensively as Greece's credit default swaps are. Enjoy the circus!

Elon and Bessent have tacitly admitted that DOGE and tariffs failed to save the bond market. Now the line is that the US will "grow our way out" of the debt. But let's be clear about what this really means: The dollar is cooked and bonds will be paid back in Monopoly money.