It's Wednesday, so it's time for DDHQ's weekly Polling Memo. This week, the spotlight is on NYC Mayor, where Mamdani looks unassailable as long as the race remains crowded. We also have polling averages for 2025 races, pres approval & more! decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/mamdani-is-a…

My prior has been CA redistricting measure is more likely to pass than not. Polls have it in low 50s, latest from Emerson is 51%. But thing with propositions is that support for them doesn’t usually increase much, and undecideds mostly end up opposing. emersoncollegepolling.com/california-202…

For DDHQ's newsletter, Geoffrey Skelley looked at why the reaction to Charlie Kirk's assassination could boost turnout among young right-leaning voters in 2026. Kirk was best-known among the young & GOP is hoping Kirk-based messaging could increase engagement. zurl.co/dQQRG

#ALSen 2026 news, potentially

Decision Desk HQ projects Adelita Grijalva to win the US House special election in Arizona's 7th congressional district. #DecisionMade: 11:01 pm ET

Republicans have an actual candidate to face Mark Warner in 2026 #VASen

I'm going to guess that another McGrath run isn't going to pull in quite the same amounts of $$$ as she did when she ran against Mitch McConnell in 2020. By the way, McGrath lost that race by nearly 20 points.

We are thrilled to announce that our NEW Large Language Model will be released on 11.18.25.

Curtis Sliwa reiterates for the 75th time he is not dropping out. And the difference between him and Adams saying that is that most people have always believed him.

Bingo. Also, call me when Sliwa withdraws, too.

For our weekly newsletter, Geoffrey Skelley took a look at the congressional redistricting situations in Utah, Kansas & North Carolina. Democrats will have a pickup opportunity in Utah, but the GOP could add seats in the other two. zurl.co/V1Yep

DDHQ Chief Election Analyst Geoffrey Skelley takes a look at today's news that Republican Rep. David Schweikert is running for Arizona governor and what it could mean for the 2026 midterms.

% of US men under 30 who say legal sports betting is a *bad thing* for society 22% in 2022 47% in 2025 No other demographic group has seen a bigger increase. pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…

Interesting ad story in #VAPol: As of right now, there's more future ad money reserved targeting Virginia's Attorney General race ($7.9m) than Virginia's Gubernatorial contest ($6.3m). #VAGov holds the overall spend/reservation general election edge: $46.2m to $22.7m

For Monday, I was going to write the DDHQ newsletter's main feature about the GOP primary in the TN-07 special election. But then on Friday, Trump just went and tweeted it out (truth'd it, really) by endorsing Matt Van Epps, which will probably secure the win for Van Epps.