Andreas Steno Larsen You can broaden it to include equity as well. I predicted no later than Q2/2026. We look to be on schedule. Those able to afford feeding the AI money furnace will prevail, and are likely preparing to feast on the underfunded. A soft capex pause by the biggies is the catalyst.

Derivatives Don The weekly roll continues to grow. Fed now printing again to ensure ample reserves. Increasing the debasement rate to 2.5-3.5% is over a trillion in shadow taxation. Add taxation of inflation related capital gains compounding annually, rough estimate of $500B, and voila, the

San Francisco Chronicle Perhaps a good idea to plan for the next earthquake. Imagine the GG/Bay bridges literally clogged with cars due to failed, autonomous vehicles. Fire engines and other large vehicles may have to physically plow through a river of cars, leaving banks of cars. Then imagine an EV

David Faber Clever. At $20B, one has to presume that the people plus non exclusive IP provides them with a secure technology advantage. Smells a bit stinky given the figure.

Peter Berezin Very interesting to see where this leads. A 2005-2007 like trend? Boomers liquidating a bit more after years of gains? I conclude that significant spending is directly and indirectly tied to the stock market. Reading Andrew Ross Sorkin 1929. Online market platforms have replaced

Uncle Milty’s Ghost Serial bubbles since 1992. Regarding silver, many participants are likely unaware that high prices draw out tons of supply, from recycling to old silver sitting in basements, attics, and now storage facilities. Perhaps the best marker of a bubble in gold. Party on!

🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼 Could be an opportune time for China to move on Taiwan.

The Kobeissi Letter This was never a mystery. Venezuela used to make lots of money shipping crude to these refineries. With the socialist idiot gone, Venezuela has the potential to restore this lucrative income stream.

Michael Pettis One has to consider the State objectives - 1) Continuous GDP growth and 2) Increasing dominance across the economic spectrum Despite a massive construction bubble, they plan for growth beyond the other top economies. Their dominance is based on notably superior value

Nick Timiraos Also depends on the product. Much of America’s daily consumption is made in America. One could presume this reality is reflected in the calculations. Also, a 10% tax at the origin is much smaller when compared to the retail price stack, including state and local taxes. A

I doubt that the entire country agreed with that. Certainly the vast majority. What happened?

Nick Timiraos Useful to assess the retail price percentage increase as import price is materially less than end to end costs. The preexisting, end to end tax burden likely dwarfs the tariff delta, especially for textiles. As usual, the politicians spin it to the extremes - You can fool most

Jim Bianco Rate normalization was signaled well in advance. The question really is who failed to adjust. BoJ - no issue; Insurance companies - likely no issue. Another factor to appreciate is that the BoJ was the main buyer at the peak of YCC. They should raise the short end more

Santiago Capital The Howard Stern of politics. He dominates the global, political airwaves with the media reacting in their own self interested fashion.

Greg Ip Decades is a bit of a stretch. Greenland acquisition is not a new idea. The JPY carry is coming to an end. Fab needs to move out of Taiwan before the takeover. None has actually yet concluded.

John Mauldin The reality is that China has supplanted the US as the international powerhouse. China’s exports to the US as a percentage of GDP continue to decline. Abundantly clear that China’s goal is to dominate every manufacturing sector. I am reasonably convinced that China, Russia,

John Mauldin Michael Shellenberger Distilling the issues further, the Biden administration openly flaunted the execution of basic law enforcement, and encouraged and supported mass violation. Many states pivoted from supporting that effort to now actively impeding the reestablishment of said law enforcement. We

James Chanos Indra One has to presume smoke and mirrors between these entities. The motivation to shift income to the publicly traded entity is tantalizing, especially for a known fraudster. Intentionally applying zero return capital to artificially inflate earnings at a publicly traded,

Andy Constan The logical approach is to adopt the pre GFC management. The GFC was caused by an insidious lack of prudential oversight on reasonably basic finance. The real battle is MMT and this Ample Reserves policy. One could argue that the balance sheet and reserve policy are more

Steve Hou Le Shrub🌳 Fixing the Fed is, in part, avoiding serial bubbles. Unsupportable leverage, reasonably predictable at underwriting, is the root. Add to that, the classic scheme, financing long term liabilities with short term debt (duration mismatch). The Wall Street bubble machine. Then we