It's worth remembering that this Bill only *slows* the massive and unsustainable increase in the benefit bill. The fact that the Labour Party can't even stomach these savings, makes clear that taxes are going to rise significantly over the course of the Parliament.

Unconventional view: the gilt movements strengthen the Chancellor's position, at least in the short-term. She can make the case that there is a clear and tangible cost of totally losing discipline with the public finances...

Sign of evolution from the ownership. I didn't think Trump fitted with the age profile of the squad. Pleased we are looking to add experience.

Completely agree with this. I'm not convinced that aggressive retaliation or targeting US services would have materially changed the outcome (15%). Could have easily made things *much* worse, with continuing escalation/Ukaine funding dragged into the debate.

The government has got somewhat fixated on recognition, as if it will move the needle with the Israeli government at all. 147 of the 193 member states of the UN already recognise a Palestinian state. Will another one (albeit a G7 country) change the Israeli calculus at all?

An issue that is still missing from much of the discussion: how do we actually change the Putin calculus and make it in his interest to end the war? Until Putin genuinely feels significant pressure to end the war (military/economic) then I fear a deal will remain theoretical..

I'm obviously very biased on this, but it's absolutely true. Getting inflation down was paramount and potentially inflationary policies (however tempting) were resisted. Inflation fell to target (from over 11%).

My only piece of reshuffle insight that's worth remembering when considering its political impact: the public hasn't heard of any of these people.

I worry that the fragmentation of UK politics could lead to a similar sort of situation as in France. A divided parliament, a failure to get debt under control, a failure to acknowledge the economic action necessary. Folding on welfare reform was a dangerous sign...

When (reasonably) criticizing the OBR's forecasting, it's forgotten that there is no actual requirement for the gov to adhere to/agree with them. Chancellor can ignore them. It's the markets that now actually constrain policy, regardless of how convenient it is to blame the OBR.

I do find it amusing that this government is portrayed by some as a sort of austerity-loving, right-wing, Blairite tribute act. Taxes on business, borrowing for public spending, Palestinian recognition...sounds pretty left-wing to me!

There may be alternative views to this thesis....

Profserious always compulsory reading...

Relieved that this Finkelstein-related confusion has been resolved....

The push for the OBR to 'score' a youth mobility scheme is puzzling to me. If they don't want the OBR to negatively score their plans to cut immigration, they shouldn't expect a mobility scheme to be scored positively...

A powerful display of strength and clarity from Professor Ben-Gad

The response of Professor Michael Ben-Gad to the harassment he has faced is a lesson in how to inspire a love of free speech in universities. He has taken his fight to the public, making his case with clarity and wit. His Vice Chancellor, Anthony Finkelstein, should be

Looks like HMT has a new codename, Project 'Leaf', for the Budget. I presume they are looking at more than a simple income tax threshold freeze if the Chancellor is spending an hour of her time on it, and it has its own code name...