Of the 30 companies that have reported earnings so far (6% of the S&P 500), overall earnings results are beating estimates by a median of 9%, and 87% of those reporting are beating estimates. fsinsight.com/earnings-daily…

“even a mild recession would warrant retesting the previous lows and result in 15%+ downside… We view the recent rally as irrational… We continue to believe a recession is likely this year” JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic

Apple just launched a new savings account (via Goldman Sachs) with a 4.15% yield. That's less than money market funds and 1% lower than the 3-Month Treasury Bill Yield of 5.21%. But most people don't know that, and Apple will see significant demand for this product. $AAPL $GS

#earnings for the week eps.sh/cal $AMZN $MSFT $META $FRC $KO $BA $VZ $GOOGL $UPS $ENPH $CLF $HAL $MCD $GM $GE $MMM $PEP $XOM $SPOT $INTC $AAL $V $ROKU $RTX $NEE $PHG $CAT $CVX $SNAP $LLY $VLO $LUV $BOH $MA $CROX $SIFY $JBLU $CMG $DOW $MO $ABBV $NOW $DHR $DX $NET

17% of $SPX have reported with 76% of them beating expectations by 5%. Next week 34% of $SPX reports - a very important week. Will be fun. The Stock Market Barely Budged, but Don’t Let It Fool You—Earnings Season Is Going Swimmingly barrons.com/articles/stock… via Barron's

$SPX is reporting Y/Y revenue growth of 2.1% for Q1 2023, which is the lowest revenue growth since Q3 2020 (-1.1%). #earnings, #earningsinsight, bit.ly/3L5nwbE

Large speculators/hedge funds back to seeing largest net short position in S&P 500 futures since 2011

6 $SPX sectors are reporting net profit margins for Q1 2023 that are below their 5-year average. #earnings, #earningsinsight, bit.ly/3NcoW6Q

Global central bank gold purchases have soared of late (at rate not seen since late-1960s) ⁦Financial Times⁩ ⁦Metals Focus⁩ ⁦@Refinitiv⁩ ⁦World Gold Council⁩

Thru March, M2 money supply -4.1% year/year, decisively worst rate back to at least 1960s

#earnings for the week eps.sh/cal $AAPL $SOFI $AMD $NCLH $UBER $SHOP $PFE $F $ON $AMC $SQ $CVS $YUM $ANET $QCOM $COIN $DKNG $ALB $CHKP $BP $BUD $DDOG $MRNA $ET $RCL $SEDG $ACMR $SMCI $MELI $GPN $SBUX $CNA $MGM $MAR $WBD $RIG $PK $MPC $FANG $EPD $NVO $PTON $STNG

74% of $SPX companies have beaten revenue estimates to date for Q1, which is above the 5-year average of 69% and above the 10-year average of 63%. #earnings, #earningsinsight, bit.ly/3LDwpu9

The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 18.1 is below the 5-year average (18.5) but above the 10-year average (17.3). #earnings, #earningsinsight, bit.ly/3LDwpu9

Personal savings rate ticked up again in March and is now at 5.1%, highest since January 2022

Interesting that in prior three Fed rate hike cycles, S&P 500 EPS (orange) peaked at/right after peak in fed funds rate (blue) … this time, EPS peak looks to be in well before peak in fed funds rate … in 1994 tightening and easing cycle, EPS didn’t fall

The S&P 500 is over 4100, yet only 47% of S&P 500 members are trading above their 200-day MA. Compare that to last month's 60% and the 73% we saw in February and breadth has deteriorated. Want to see this improve if a rally is going to be durable.

#earnings for the week eps.sh/cal $PYPL $PLTR $ABNB $DIS $DVN $TSN $BNTX $RBLX $RIVN $OXY $LCID $FSR $TWLO $JD $AFRM $NKLA $IEP $UPST $TTD $VTRS $SIX $WYNN $DISH $NVAX $SWKS $DOCN $FRPT $ENR $AXSM $MCK $U $SU $KKR $WDC $HIMS $LI $AMR $ANIP $BROS $WEN $THS $COTY

$SPX is reporting a Y/Y earnings decline of -2.2% for Q1 2023, which is the 2nd straight quarter that the index is reporting a (Y/Y) decrease in earnings. #earnings, #earningsinsight, bit.ly/42q5I1K

$SPX is reporting Y/Y revenue growth of 3.9% for Q1 2023, which is the lowest revenue growth since Q4 2020 (3.2%). #earnings, #earningsinsight, bit.ly/42q5I1K

The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 17.7 is below the 5-year average (18.6) but above the 10-year average (17.3). #earnings, #earningsinsight, bit.ly/42q5I1K