ALL bitcoin price increase occurred around the 3 halvings (H-6m / H+18m). Being in the market only in these 3 periods and out during the rest would have increased a $5 investment to $130k (purple line) instead of $37k buy&hold (blue line). NFA but fun to see what 4th halving
If you want to know more about bitcoin Stock-to-Flow:
* This is the original 2019 article:
medium.com/@100trillionUS…
* Or watch this YouTube video:
youtube.com/watch?v=axMgJx…
Cliff BTC fair value after 2024 halving = 0.4 * S2F-ratio 110 ^ 3 = $532k. Pls note the model is not very accurate, so take roughly a /2 x2 range: $250k-$1m
Diminishing or exponential returns, interesting times ahead!
Time power law expects diminishing returns:
2024-2028: 200k peak, then 100k
2028-2032: 500k peak, then 300k
Stock-to-Flow power law expects exponential returns:
2024-2028: at least 300k average
2028-2032: 3m average
⚠️Important chart!
BTC price series (blue) is split in two:
1) Long BTC only 2 years around halvings (green)
2) Long BTC only 2 years between halvings (red)
Green + red = blue.
Green beats buy&hold BTC (blue) 4x!
ALL BTC gains (and more) are around halvings!
That's why I❤️S2F
MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 3,000 BTC for ~$155 million at an average price of $51,813 per #bitcoin. As of 2/25/24, Strategy now hodls 193,000 $BTC acquired for ~$6.09 billion at an average price of $31,544 per bitcoin. $MSTR microstrategy.com/press/microstr…
🔴 May is the first month of the new halving cycle, countdown to 2028 halving has started (see color scale). 200 week moving average is $35k and rising.
More info: m.youtube.com/watch?v=67eetL…
Average bitcoin price 2020-2024 halving cycle was $34k. A bit below 2019 S2F prediction of $55k, but still in normal range and not bad given BTC<$4k when prediction was made. Refit of S2F with new data (below) shows similar parameters & results: $0.5m 2024-2028 and $4m 2028-2032
Age of taking office:
42 - Theodore Roosevelt
43 - John F. Kennedy
46 - Ulysses S. Grant
46 - Bill Clinton
47 - Grover Cleveland
47 - Barack Obama
48 - Franklin Pierce
49 - James K. Polk
49 - James A. Garfield
50 - Millard Fillmore
51 - John Tyler
51 - Chester A. Arthur
51 -
You just watched the oldest presidents debate.
Now watch the youngest.
(Roosevelt was from before the tradition of presidential debates, so JFK remains the youngest)
youtube.com/watch?v=IrKXST…
$BTC schaltet die 1. Alternative frei📢☝ $BTC hat die Welle 4(orange) noch nicht abgeschlossen gehabt und befindet sich nun inmitten dieser Welle 4(orange) die im Bereich zwischen 55040$ und 43500$ komplettiert werden sollte.
#Elliottwave #trading #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC #BTC