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Concerning housing trend: seeing more roommates doubling up + young adults moving back with parents. Weaker hiring for college grads is likely primary blame. Hasn't been mentioned on any REIT earnings yet, but worth watching. A full-on recession would blow this up even more.

Great scoop by Camilo Montoya-Galvez with potential implications for job growth forecasts ahead. Reminder, letting asylum seekers apply to work legally added 2.8 million extra workers to the 2023-2024 job market.

10-year high unemployment for recent college grads. Some segments of housing performing like a mild recession already. Means more delayed household formation, living with parents/roommates longer.

I've been showing this annotated chart in presentations recently. Stunning to go from 250K detained at border (December 2023) to under 10K (February 2025). New policies since January 2024 have slammed the brakes on SW border crossings.

For the first time in the US, more babies are now born to moms 40–44 than 15–19. This marks 2 historical shifts for the US, plummeting teen pregnancy and gradually rising fertility for older women.

Another great chart from our head of demographics Eric Finnigan.

Florida in-migration is drying up: Household move-ins from other states just hit their lowest monthly level since at least 2018. Adds context to housing weakness through much of Florida.

Households migrating out of urban/infill suburban not just moving to less-dense suburbs but smaller (nearby) metros. These smaller metros function like exurbs even though OMB defines them as separate metro areas: Denver -> Greeley Austin -> Killeen Orlando -> Ocala

Large homebuilders with access to capital/labor are still taking market share from the smaller builders in the NAHB index. The median NAHB builder member builds 6 homes a year. Lennar delivered 20,131 homes in their latest quarter.