PPI final demand: Energy prices were the major factor, but crude food prices for export were also down.

Empire manufacturing survey indicates rising prices and declining activity.

Retail sales rose in March, driven by a jump in motor vehicles and auto parts dealers sales (blue column). Consumers likely pulled forward car purchases to get ahead of tariffs.

Gold is performing exactly how Bitcoin holders said Bitcoin would perform in this type of macro and geopolitical climate.

Jobless claims 215K - no change in the trend. Continuing claims are holding.

Philly Fed survey not great. New orders dropped to the lowest point since 2020. Employment is also down.

Stock down, bond yields up, curve steepening and dollar at a two-year low. That's what the markets think about the president "terminating" Powell as Fed Chair. It is probably less about Powell or any replacement and more about preserving some semblance of Fed independence.

Completed (ready-to-occupy) new homes climbed to 119K in March…an increase of 34% from a year earlier

No big change in the trend in jobless claims.

Friday: Quiet morning so far. Equity futures slightly lower, treasury yields edging down 1-2 bps and dollar mostly steady. Economic reports today is UMich survey (which everyone loves to hate). Trade policy is still major focus for market but not clear where it is or is going.

How well did Bitcoin work as a currency today in Spain/Portugal?

The Constitution clearly states that Congress, not the president, has the power of the purse. All new taxes (which is what a tariff is) are supposed to originate in the House of Representatives before going to the Senate for approval. washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/33…

The manufacturing sector and "other" were the only one to subtract jobs and those declines were marginal.

Fed: No change in policy but "uncertainty" still high - about both inflation and the economy. We continue to see rate cuts this year but not until September or later.

US non-farm productivity dropped in Q1 for the first time since 2022. I take the productivity numbers with a grain of salt. On a quarter-to-quarter basis there can be distortions. It's the long-term trend that matters.

So…Americans had to pay a 10% tax before the “deal,” and Americans have to pay a 10% tax after the “deal.” We have some of the most economically illiterate people in the world in charge of trade policy.

Jim Bianco 💯

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” Happy Independence Day!

huge revisions to May and June hiring data, which were slashed by a combined 258,000 positions to 19,000 in May and 14,000 in June. The Fed pays close attention to these monthly jobs reports to shape and set policy, and yet the revisions make you wonder how reliable they are

The massive downward revisions (-258k) are puzzling. Even as someone who long believes payrolls are overstated by massive amount, these downward revisions are anormay large outside of benchmark month or weather related events. The downward revision are largest for state and