By the way, there is 5% of US GDP stashed in MMF being RRPd nightly at for scraps, supply-side bottlenecks getting worse, energy crisis spreading, inflation expectations rising and low skilled wages picking-up. Yet Fed still buying same amount of bonds as Apr ‘20 - 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

Did Biden kill this correlation?

We have spent 20 years trading NFP as a demand side number but now it's a labor supply story so the framework for trading should change. A low number e.g., +160k with a UR of 4.8% is a labor tightness story and not dovish. Participation, UR, headline all matter in combination.

Private jobs were up 317,000 in September. On an hours-adjusted basis they were up 1,036,000. That is because aggregate private hours were up 0.8% in September (average weekly hours were up). Years ago at CEA Steve Braun taught me to use aggregate hours not jobs in analysis.

Mkt struggling with 80 oil and 1.6% Imagine 100 and 2.5%

Don't regret anything in life. If it's good, it's wonderful. If it's bad, it's experience! When you win, you win. When you lose, you learn.

@DavidSchawel

I just subscribed to kyla’s Newsletter kyla.substack.com/?utm_medium=we…

FSD Beta testing videos shot and done. Thanks to my neighbor for letting us use his car to film. That is probably the least relaxing and sketchiest way to get across a city based off of my 24 hour test.

نِتیکال 🤞 سجاد علوی No, we're going to hire you instead because we are tired of fun, and your resume fits the bill.

The Fed’s excessive QE has made the markets solely a voting machine. They have removed the weighting machine. What a horrible thing for long term productivity!

𝓦𝓱𝓮𝓷 𝓡𝓸𝓴𝓸𝓼 𝓜𝓮𝓽 𝓑𝓪𝓲𝓵𝓮𝔂 - Part 1

Historic market cap losses from peak to bankruptcy: Worldcom - $180bn Enron - $70bn Lehman - $60bn Tesla loss today - $140bn

A 1% move in the $40T S&P500 is $400B of “QE” to financial conditions

Types of Eclipses!

Some of these ideas were discussed in my latest Wall Street Journal Opinion. Stay tuned for more of this over the course of the week (and not just in long Twitter threads). wsj.com/articles/biden…