GW6 Match Predictions 📅 An early look at the likely outcomes this week. More free data at: elevenify.com/p/premier-leag…

Alarm bells should go off if you see ‘controls variance’. Sport is an inherently random system. Variance isn’t a bug: it’s a feature. You cannot control variance (defy it). You can only manage variance (plan with it). In this world, Arteta is more interesting than Slot.

Time for #quickmaths: The likelihood of this record happening to an average PL penalty taker is roughly ~2% In my model, chance of this happening to Watkins is roughly ~9% Grab a coin and try get the same outcome 4 times in a row if you want to gauge the likelihood territory

An excellent video you should watch I’m biased because I saw it as prop for my silly ‘decision quality is all there is’ theory of football Arsenal extending their umbrella of ‘control’ beyond just having the ball is why I am so confident they will win the PL very soon

Some halftime reading

Sunderland are already at 36% of their preseason expected total points with only 16% of the season played. I am not convinced they’re as strong as the narrative/consensus suggests but increasingly looking like they will stay up.

Wolves have flirted with the bottom for too long and this is the season they might finally be relegated

A huge win for Arsenal. They gained 3.1 points on Liverpool in the title race (based on pre-gameweek expectations). Sometimes 3 points will feel like they’re worth more! Big swing.