Data are sometimes noisy, but they are never wrong. (It's our models that are wrong!) @BillRoth_ Ed Wheatcroft [email protected]

📖 First proof copy of Escape From Model Land! Amazing to have an actual book after so long on the screen 😊

Stefan presenting work we're doing together, looking at Transfermarkt.co.uk data. So here's our collective gloom as #oafc and #iron fans respectively.

In final #ToryLeadershipContest round #RishiSunak 137 votes. #BorisJohnson had 211 in confidence vote. What have Tory MPs done?

Probability forecasts for week 1 of the #NFL season. #BUFvsLAR

Cromwell’s Rule forbids assigning a probability of zero to anything that is not a mathematical impossibility, but what is a physicist to believe when, with only 41 seconds remain in the game, the team trailing by 21 points throws an incomplete pass on fourth down?

Home-win #Probability #Forecast: #NFL Week 1 Favorite Unclear in 4 games, #CLEvsCAR Called Closest. One Lone Wolf game #GBvsMIN Forecaster's probability high on Indianapolis Colts in #INDvsHOU; insight or week 1 over-confidence again? Model Inadequacy flag on Elo #DENvsSEA, a silly input?

Home-win #Probability #Forecasts for #NFL Week 2 #LACvsKC tonight & each forecaster on our list favors the Kansas City Chiefs over Los Angeles Chargers in #ChiefsvsChargers. What does the alignment in these probabilistic predictions really tell us? #statistics #maths #DataAnalytics #DataScientists

Home-win #Probability #Forecasts for #NFL Week 3. #LVvsTEN called closest game. Four Lonewolf games including cynthia frelund in #GBvsTB , she remains significantly ahead of all others even though noone lost points on #TNF and most reduced the gap.

2022 #NFL Week 5 Home Win Probability Forecasts

While I adore physics based violations of Cromwell’s Rule (“Never say zero probability in life.”), this claim suggests you review your scorigami model: Hou TD for 7 pts: 20 - 6 JAX FG for 3 pts: 20 - 9 JAX kickoff muffed, -> Saftey: 20 - 11. >3 min; small, nonzero prob.

Predicting the Predictors: Will be interesting to see the probability forecasts of those near the top of the 538 leaderboard tonight for #NFL #WASvsCHI game. I’m forecasting 50% & predict Ross will be near me with Shawn farther & Mark farther still. Why? (538 use a proper score)

Home-Win #Probability #Forecasts for 2022 #NFL Week 7 cynthia frelund lone wolf in #NYGvsJAX , now “Called Closest” Strong agreement on Tampa Bay Buccaneers as last week, how does this inform #TBvsCAR? Why did I move to 0.49 in #NYJvsDEN given my true belief is 0.50 and IGN a proper score?

Home-Win #Probability #Forecast for Week 9 of the 2022 #NFL Season. #LVvsJAX called closest, while ESPN Stats & Info and cynthia frelund usually confident on #TENvsKC and #BUFvsNYJ respectively. All forecasters favour Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs with a geometric average near 80%.

Home-Win #Probably #Forecasts: 2022 #NFL Week 10 Only two games with agreed heavy favourites: #JAXvsKC and #WASvsPHI . cynthia frelund a lone wolf: Arizona Cardinals in #ARIvsLAR. ESPN Stats & Info model finally draws a purple light for pre-game model instability, not for its low score. Why?

Probability forecasts for Week 13 of the 2022 NFL Season. Six lone wolf forecasts is a record hi. Meteorologists (& other modellers) might find it useful to make regular sports related probability forecasts. Competing with 5 skilful forecasters every week has taught me a lot!

Week 16 #NFL Home-Win #Probability #Forecasts cynthia frelund outside (more confident than) oddschecker in #LVvsPIT !

New academic year. New #NFL season tonight. New Home-win Forecasting App. Working with #VT students to practice decision making and uncertainty guidance, as they feel the risk of forecasting the probability of a how-win for #Chiefs in #BALvKC @VTECE Ed Wheatcroft Sports Data Analytics Club

Pi in the sky! Happy pi day.