There are a lot a smart analyses and numbers generated re the big, bad budget bill. Here's a collection of some I find particularly compelling, along with a highly relevant observation about the false promise of trickledown from...*1516.* econjared.substack.com/p/there-are-a-…

I urge you to glance at this post by Hannah Katch and me because it captured, for us, a core conservative case against Mcaid and other anti-poverty programs: they must be cut because they've grown. With literally zero consideration of their impact. econjared.substack.com/p/the-conserva…

Who wins/who loses from tax changes in the budget is an important question. But a more important question is who wins/loses from the full tax agenda, including tariffs, a highly regressive tax. Here’s the answer from the Budget Lab. Answer: **everyone** except the wealthy.

No question, these are confusing econ times. But I still think one can pull an intelligible signal from the dataflow, especially re inflation and the labor market. econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-th…

Wow, a really nice compliment from Trump to Powell! Complaining about how the Fed chair won't bend to his will, Trump said: “I’m nasty. I’m nice. NOTHING WORKS!" That last bit there is the sign of a truly independent central banker.

Thnx to Greg for giving me a chance to hold forth. We can, should, & do go into many weeds on these policies, but the big pic couldn't be clearer: after running on helping the working class, the Trump admin is attacking them, making them worse off and raising the costs they face.

Probably fair to assume that those making such arguments the loudest have zero ideas on how to ameliorate the affordability crisis.

The devolution of American fiscal policy in one annotated graph, told through the history of our publicly-held debt/GDP, including the impact of Trump and the R's budget bill.

Ray Dalio says: The GOP bill “reflects a political system that favors indulging voters over prudence.” Nope. The bill is deeply underwater with most voters. It indulges Trump & the R donor class while screwing the working class, many of whom know it. wsj.com/finance/invest…

Tis said: "if you really understand something, you can explain it to anyone." That came to mind listening to renowned tax economist Elena Patel (former CEA, now TPC) break down the tax policies in the big, bad budget bill on Let's Do Lunch yesterday: contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lunc…

Trump and the markets this week: Trump: "Trade war forever!" Markets: "He's bluffing." [TACO rally] Trump: "Markets onboard w forever trade war!" New Canada tariff threat spooking markets today, so maybe this loop will break. But just sayin'...

Some brief noodling on a ridiculous possibility: open.substack.com/pub/econjared/…

Dear Deity, I’m sorry I complained so much over the years about “do-nothing” Congresses but can you please stop punishing me for it? I get the point.