How is GiveWell responding to changes in US foreign aid? ⤵️

x.com/i/article/1903…

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

New preprint finding that eliminating US global health funding over the next fifteen years would cause: - 15.2m deaths from AIDS - 2.2m deaths from TB - 7.9 additional child deaths

Killing enormous numbers of innocent people to save tiny amounts of money and then immediately spending 8x that on bailouts for their own donors whose businesses they crushed with their unnecessary trade war

Just finished "Abundance" by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson. Fantastic book! I found myself thinking, "I couldn't agree more." Well done! If I may offer one critique...however...

“No children are dying on my watch,” said Rubio. It's blatantly false. Credible estimates count 190K deaths so far. In Kenya, I am documenting for a film devastating impact, including this child's starvation & many deaths directly caused by Rubio’s actions. See my @msnbc clip

We ran a randomized controlled trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up experienced open-source developers. The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.

Finally read the The Lancet article claiming US foreign assistance cuts will lead to 14mill deaths up to 2030 which has garnered much media attention. Its problematic to say the least, X-country regression with mortality on left and US spending per head on right. 1/ 🧵

Not nothing. Many people who received AIDS drugs via PEPFAR have probably died. More people will die because of the cuts to GAVI. But it previously cost so little to save these lives that letting these people die won’t generate enough savings to show up on the graph.

The PEPFAR cut is being removed from the rescissions package, per Sen. Schmitt. Reduces the size of the overall cut by $400 million.

From Côte d’Ivoire to the U.S., social obligations to share income are common. Eliana Carranza, Aletheia Donald, Florian Grosset-Touba and Supreet Kaur show their welfare benefits may come at a cost: lower labor supply and productivity. econometricsociety.org/publications/e…

Very excited to be starting as a faculty member at NovaSBE, along with 9 other lovely members of the crew! Looking forward to meeting all my fantastic colleagues in Lisbon