I co-wrote an op-ed in the South China Morning Post today with Donald Low, with some thoughts on the global economic and geopolitical spillovers of China's drive for industrial dominance. scmp.com/week-asia/opin…

Data from Andy Lin 林佳賢 World Bank & analysis from SOAS University of London Olivia Cheung He Shujing of @PlenumChina Michael Pettis Carnegie China David Skilling et al

Very good Financial Times piece on the global spillovers of China's new growth model - and its limitations - with some comments from me. The piece is available at: ft.com/content/ae5179… Edward White

This graph is pretty striking: New Zealand's productivity performance is historically poor and now looks shocking h/t David Skilling

My latest note on the pressures across the global exchange rate system due to a strong USD, and the potential for shocks. Currency wars may become another dimension of strategic competition between the big powers. The note is available at: davidskilling.substack.com/p/currency-wars

After decades of relatively weak investment across advanced economies, we are entering a period of significantly increasing public and private investment - what I am calling 'the great reindustrialisation'. davidskilling.substack.com/p/the-great-re…

Striking from David Skilling on "the great reindustrialisation" — a new capex boom with "first-order implications across the global economy". Net zero transition + AI +, of course, geopolitical rivalry. "wartime economies tend to be capital intensive....." davidskilling.substack.com/p/the-great-re…

Economic relations are increasingly contingent on the geopolitics. My note today considers 5 developments in trade flows to illustrate this, from US/China, to North Asia, Mexico, & Australia. A new globalisation is emerging. davidskilling.substack.com/p/trade-as-geo…

Two weeks of electoral drama around the world, from India and Mexico to Europe, highlight the consequential economic impact of politics: a sign of what to expect as we look to elections in France and then the US. My note: davidskilling.substack.com/p/election-ris…

Recent market movements in France highlight how suddenly investors can start pricing in institutional and political risk, with very little warning (h/t David Skilling for the chart). My recent The Budget Lab report analyzes these same risks in the US context budgetlab.yale.edu/news/240502/po…

My thoughts on the winners and losers from ‘the great reindustrialisation’ process: what are the characteristics of economies that are best positioned to benefit from increased capex? davidskilling.substack.com/p/financing-th…

Beyond the busy election calendar, structural changes in politics and policy are underway across advanced economies – with material economic consequences. My latest note: davidskilling.substack.com/p/political-re…

I timed my vacation to coincide with a few weeks of particular economic and political turbulence. My latest note with some thoughts on the structural drivers causing an upsurge in economic and political volatility, and why this is likely to continue: davidskilling.substack.com/p/no-summer-br…

Some of my thoughts on the ongoing rise in public debt across advanced economies; and the economic and geopolitical risk exposures that this creates. davidskilling.substack.com/p/the-rise-and…

To ensure AI development benefits everyone, we need global collaboration, ethical AI practices, and a focus on public services & underserved communities, say Philip Schellekens & David Skilling in their blog: '3 Reasons Why AI May Widen Global Inequality.' shorturl.at/YvYJC

According to Philip Schellekens & David Skilling, #AI could widen global #inequality as rich countries better harness benefits, poor countries struggle w/ disruptions, & AI increases pressure on dev. models. Read on: cgdev.org/blog/three-rea…