"if you dont get the geopolitics right, you cant understand where the markets will go" A highly experienced macro hedge fund manager brought this discussion to my attention. It explores the erosion of the liberal world order, the role of economic statecraft, and more related

We're now at 29x sales vs. 35x a few weeks ago. Leverage is below mid-cycle, so think the multiple is probably underrepresenting earnings power, so perhaps I'm willing to buy at 20x sales. ~30% decline from current prices, or ~40% market growth is needed to get me comfortable.

Maybe, just maybe, it was this easy...

As a serious founder, you aren’t just hiring employees. You're hiring people who operate like founders. Working in crypto is brutal. You need people who: - Own the outcome (no matter what) - Cut through noise to find clarity - Set the bar, then raise it - Move with urgency

We see a bitcoinization of the Ethereum economy. BTC is more and more traded and is a bigger collateral on Morpho 🦋 than ETH

Every time I get to see the Sequoia Capital process I’m reminded of what “great” looks like. The truth it isn’t complicated. Some notes: 1. Make the calls you say you will 2. Schedule the meetings you say you will on time 3. If you ask for the data room, actually look at the data room

There’s a negative correlation between seed stage hype and success. It feels good to be part of a hot round where there’s lots of money raised, lots of competition, brand name investors, lots of press, etc. Hot deals before product market fit rarely lead to big outcomes though.

One story. Two lessons! Can you see them?

This NYU paper basically says: retail investors spend 6 minutes researching a trade - mostly just looking at charts What most people actually want is an entertainment platform. Not a finance app The best intimately recognize this and are building entertainment super-apps

The biggest product ever

I have a VC friend and a hedge fund friend who shadowed each other at their respective firms: attended IC meetings, diligence sessions, & team meetings. The VC left awed and impressed at how well run the hedge fund was. In his words, "these guys go to a level of detail &

from 2000

Need skin in the game

Vendor lock-in in practice is far higher than we thought. Only 11% switched foundational model vendors, and 61% wanted better performance 4/7

This, but the exact opposite:

Bottom line though: Grok 4 Heavy was smarter 2 weeks ago than GPT5 is now and G4H is already a lot better. Let that sink in.

Zervos is the Fed Chair we all deserve…

High Yield Harry Anthropic CEO talked about how he approaches LLM economics in an interview with John Collison

The surge in AI-written speeches in Britain's House of Commons visualised: