Where we started: deficits = 6-7% of GDP Sec Bessent’s original proposal: deficits = 3% of GDP Where OBBB is taking us: deficits = 8%+ of GDP

Is Milton Friedman’s famous quip that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” the last word on what causes inflation?

From program associate to a PhD scholar in 8 years! 🙌 Starting in the monetary policy program under Scott Sumner (TheMoneyIllusion) and David Beckworth, Patrick Horan ☘️ worked his way up while earning his master’s and PhD at George Mason University. Hear his story of growth, learning, and the

It's simply uncredible that the economic policies they're looking at add 0.7-1.0pp of real growth **each year** over 10 years, especially not when you're raising tariffs and cutting immigration & advanced research.

Trump's biggest impact on dollar dominance will not be the challenges created by his trade war, but the opportunities created by his push for dollar stablecoins. Great thread on the latter ⬇️

I'm now off to join William Beach in a new venture, The Fiscal Lab on Capitol Hill! More to come, but here is a sneak peek 3/3 washingtonstand.com/news/pressure-…

My latest Substack post builds off this week's podcast by looking at data that show households still worried about inflation. Here is one example. Full note here: macroeconomicpolicynexus.substack.com/p/winners-lose…

I’ve been a critic of the Fed’s post-2008 IOR-based “floor” operating system as long as anyone. But IOR is no more a transfer to the banks than the interest they’d receive if they held Treasuries now held by the Fed directly instead of having the Fed serve as an intermediary.

New Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics Note: "When financial regulation becomes financial repression" (link below) We take a macro view on the interactions between: (i) high and rising debt (ii) OBBB expansionary spending (iii) GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation (iv) SLR bank capital reform

Okay, the one silver lining to this fiscal disaster of a bill.

The American Revolution was a big deal. thedispatch.com/next-250/ameri…

This is worth a read for anyone in the crypto space, but also echoes something I have been saying for a while: In the long run when systems transform, the gains do not always go in monopoly fashion to a handful of insiders. Often it will go to the users, consumers, or be